Seoul National University Medical School Professors: "Government Must Stop Distorting Research Reports... Hope They Heed Expert Opinions"

Professors at Seoul National University College of Medicine urged the government to stop distorting research reports presented as grounds for increasing medical school admissions and to heed expert opinions.

Kang Hee-kyung, Chairperson of the Emergency Response Committee and Professor at Seoul National University College of Medicine, is delivering the keynote speech at the discussion forum "Medical Reform, Where Is It Heading?" held on the 10th at the Convergence Hall of Seoul National University College of Medicine in Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

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The Emergency Response Committee (ERC) of Seoul National University College of Medicine and Seoul National University Hospital stated on the 17th through the 'Physician Number Estimation Opinions' on three research reports used by the government as evidence for increasing medical school admissions: research by Professor Hong Yoon-cheol of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Seoul National University College of Medicine, the Korea Development Institute (KDI), and the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs.

Earlier, the government proposed a plan to increase medical school quotas by 2,000 students annually over the next five years, based on a forecast in February that there would be a shortage of 15,000 doctors by 2035.

The ERC argued, "It is necessary to introduce scenarios considering policy improvements for a sustainable healthcare system and conduct new estimation research," adding, "Depending on the assumptions and scenarios applied in the estimation research, the results can vary significantly even within the same research model."

They continued, "All three studies referenced by the government assumed 265 working days per year, excluding public holidays, Sundays, and Saturdays. Research by Professor Shin Young-seok of Korea University Graduate School of Public Health assumed 240 and 255 days to produce additional results," explaining, "When estimating physician workload at 80% to 120% of the current level, the shortage or surplus of doctors in 2035 ranged widely from a shortage of 49,000 to a surplus of about 17,000."

They also emphasized, "Research by Dr. Kwon Jung-hyun of KDI assumed that doctors gradually retire starting at age 50 and that all retire by age 90," adding, "While other professionals such as judges and prosecutors mostly retire by age 70, doctors tend to retire later because they work as self-employed and start their careers later due to long training periods."

According to the Ministry of Health and Welfare’s healthcare workforce survey data, the number of doctors aged 60 or older working in medical institutions was 4,965 in 2010, and active doctors aged 70 or older numbered 4,042 in 2020, indicating that 80.8% of doctors continue working after age 70.

The ERC stated, "Research by Dr. Kwon Jung-hyun and others showed a shortage of about 10,000 doctors in 2035 and about 22,000 in 2050. When introducing a scenario reflecting a decrease in medical service demand based on changes in the population’s educational attainment, no shortage appeared until 2033, and a shortage of about 10,000 doctors was estimated in 2050."

They added, "Professor Hong’s research assumed a 0.5% annual increase in physician productivity due to technological advances and divided retirement ages into 75 and 80 years, assuming that doctors aged 65 or older have 50% or 75% productivity. The shortage of doctors in 2035 was estimated at about 10,800 when assuming retirement at 75 and 50% productivity for those over 65, and about 7,200 when assuming retirement at 80 and 75% productivity."

They further noted, "Applying a scenario where about 30% of licensees from 2030 serve as primary care physicians under the introduction of a primary care system, the shortage of doctors in 2035 was estimated to be about 3,000, a lower figure."

The ERC also urged the government to stop distorting research reports and listen to expert opinions. They said, "The government should stop arbitrarily distorting the three studies and familiarize itself with the researchers’ opinions even now," adding, "Considering rapidly rising medical costs and depleting insurance finances, the current system is unsustainable and undesirable."

Furthermore, they stated, "It is necessary to select estimation variables and scenarios to be introduced and conduct estimation research, and when evaluating results, the opinions of experts in the relevant professions must be sufficiently reflected," adding, "Also, legal grounds supporting the role of estimation organizations should be established so that the derived results can be reflected in healthcare workforce supply and demand policies."

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