Harris Leads Trump by 4%P... "No Convention Effect"

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris was shown to slightly lead former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, in a public opinion poll. However, no convention effect was observed following the Democratic National Convention.

Polling firm Morning Consult conducted a nationwide survey of 7,818 people over three days starting from the day after the Democratic National Convention ended, on the 23rd of this month, and released the results on the 27th (local time). Vice President Harris recorded a 48% approval rating (margin of error ±1%), leading former President Trump by 4 percentage points. Morning Consult stated that this gap was the same as in last week's survey, indicating that no convention effect was observed following the convention.

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Morning Consult also noted that since becoming the Democratic presidential candidate following President Joe Biden at the end of last month, Vice President Harris has never trailed former President Trump in daily tracking polls.

The survey showed that the 'honeymoon' period between Vice President Harris and the media continues. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they had mostly heard positive news about Vice President Harris over the past week, while only 32% reported hearing negative news. In contrast, only 31% of respondents said they had heard positive news about former President Trump, while 46% reported hearing negative news.

Unlike Vice President Harris, running mate Governor Tim Walz was found to be enjoying a convention effect. Governor Walz, who impressed with a down-to-earth 'neighborly guy' image at the convention, saw his favorability rise to 42%, up 3 percentage points from 39% before the convention. His unfavorability remained unchanged at 36%.

The Ipsos poll released on the same day showed that former President Trump's advantage on key election policy issues such as the economy and crime has weakened.

In this survey conducted from the 23rd to the 25th among 1,028 voters nationwide, 43% of respondents preferred former President Trump's approach to economic issues, while 40% preferred Vice President Harris's approach. In a survey conducted at the end of July, former President Trump held an 11 percentage point lead, but in this survey, his lead narrowed to 3 percentage points, which is within the margin of error (±4%).

On crime issues, Vice President Harris tied with former President Trump at 40%. Last month, the preference for former President Trump's approach was 5 percentage points higher.

However, on immigration issues, preference for former President Trump (45%) was higher than for Vice President Harris (37%).

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