Including Seoul... There May Be No Cities Able to Host the Summer Olympics by 2050

As the Paris Olympics concluded amid a heatwave with temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius, projections indicate that by 2050, the heat will worsen to the point where there will be almost no cities capable of hosting the Summer Olympics.

On the 30th (local time), people are cooling off in front of the cooling fog at the archery venue installed in Les Invalides, Paris, France.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

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According to Yonhap News, citing an analysis by the nonprofit carbon program research group CarbonPlan reported by the US CNN on the 11th (local time), the average annual maximum Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) in most cities worldwide is expected to exceed 32 degrees Celsius between 2040 and 2059.

The WBGT is a comprehensive index that measures heat stress on humans by considering temperature, humidity, and cloud cover. It is used as a standard for preventing heatstroke in outdoor activities. When this index exceeds 32 degrees, even short-term outdoor activities are considered to pose risks of heat-related illnesses or death. For marathons, events are suspended if the WBGT exceeds 28 degrees.

Among 24 existing and planned host cities, including Seoul, 11 are estimated to reach levels of heat that would prevent hosting the Summer Olympics again. Five cities?Seoul in Korea, Tokyo in Japan, Beijing in China, St. Louis in the United States, and Rio de Janeiro in Brazil?are predicted to have average WBGT values of 27.7 degrees or higher in both sun and shade during the 2050 Summer Olympics period. A WBGT of 27.7 degrees is the threshold at which the American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) recommends stopping continuous physical activity. Six other cities?Athens in Greece, Rome in Italy, Atlanta in the United States, Barcelona in Spain, Sydney and Brisbane in Australia?are expected to have WBGT values exceeding 27.7 degrees in the sun.

Among planned host cities, Los Angeles, scheduled to host in 2028, is predicted to have WBGT values below 27.7 degrees in both sun and shade. However, among six cities that have officially declared bids for the 2036 Summer Olympics, five showed WBGT levels at dangerous thresholds. Santiago in Chile was the only bidding city predicted to have WBGT values below 27.7 degrees even in summer.

Oriana Chegwidden, a climatologist at CarbonPlan, stated, "The worst heatwaves of the year in most parts of the world coincide with the Summer Olympics period," adding, "Countries aiming to host the 2036 Olympics may also face heat as a significant variable."

CNN added, "Extreme heat poses an increasing threat to athletes, and pollution from fossil fuels is raising temperatures and humidity, making heatstroke more common," and noted, "There is a growing call to change the timing of the Olympics to avoid overlapping with peak heat periods."

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