'If It's "Eodaehan," Does It Mean Box Office Failure? Looking Back at Past Party Convention Results [News Seolcham]'

A red light has been lit on the excitement surrounding the People Power Party's (PPP) party convention. This is because the phrase 'Eodaehan' (meaning "Anyway, the party leader will be Han Dong-hoon") is gaining traction both inside and outside the party. The more the 'Han Dong-hoon trend' solidifies, the more the PPP is anxious about the possibility of poor turnout if other party leadership candidates do not participate in the competition. The PPP hopes that this party convention will generate a convention effect that attracts public interest. To this end, they have even pulled out the card of lowering the deposit candidates must pay to run for party leader and Supreme Council member elections.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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Until now, it has been difficult for conservative party conventions to surpass the '30% barrier.' Until the 12th Hannara Party convention in July 2011, which significantly expanded the electorate, voting was conducted only by delegates, and general party members could not vote. Except for the 3rd Saenuri Party convention in July 2014, which elected former lawmaker Kim Moo-sung as party leader with a turnout of 31.7%, all other conventions recorded turnout rates below 30%. The unusually high turnout during Kim's election was due to the high interest in the convention, as it was a two-horse race between the non-Park Geun-hye faction (non-Park faction) Kim and the pro-Park Geun-hye faction (pro-Park faction) leader Seo Cheong-won, former Supreme Council member.

The Liberty Korea Party's conventions also maintained a turnout rate around 25%. Hong Joon-pyo, then governor of Gyeongsangnam-do, ran for president in the 2017 election following the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye but lost. He was then elected party leader in the July 2017 convention. He won overwhelmingly with 51,891 votes (65.74%) in the combined total of the electorate and opinion polls, defeating former lawmakers Won Yoo-chul and Shin Sang-jin. The final turnout at that time was 25.2%. The final turnout for the February 2019 convention that elected former Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn as party leader was 25.4%.

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In contrast, the PPP's party conventions have been making unprecedented history in terms of turnout. The key phrase for the first convention held in June 2021 to elect the inaugural leadership was the 'Lee Jun-seok storm.' At just 36 years old, candidate Lee Jun-seok defeated senior figures such as Na Kyung-won and Joo Ho-young, causing a stir and becoming the first 30-something leader of a parliamentary negotiation group in Korean political history. This was 10 years after he entered politics in 2011 as one of the so-called 'Park Geun-hye kids.' The turnout at that time was 45.36%, marking an unexpectedly high turnout for a conservative party convention.

What about the March 2023 convention, where a specific candidate was expected to win, similar to the 'Eodaehan' scenario in this convention?

At that time, the election of lawmaker Kim Ki-hyun, who had the backing of Yoon Sim (尹心, meaning President Yoon Suk-yeol's intentions), was widely anticipated, and the phrase 'Eodae-Kim' (meaning "Anyway, the party leader will be Kim Ki-hyun") was circulating. There was also analysis that the change in the party leader election rule from the previous '70% party member vote and 30% opinion poll' to '100% party member vote' was intended to disadvantage non-Yoon faction candidates such as former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min. Additionally, there were many negative issues, including controversies over the presidential office's interference in party affairs and Na Kyung-won's announcement that she would not run.

However, the convention at that time set a new record for conservative parties with a final turnout of 55.1%. The number of party members surged to about 840,000. This was nearly 2.5 times the approximately 330,000 party members at the time of the party leader election that elected Lee Jun-seok just two years earlier. The introduction of a mobile voting system was cited as a factor for the high turnout, as the voting process became easier and simpler. It was also analyzed that the full race participation of candidates with distinct political spectrums?Kim Ki-hyun, Hwang Kyo-ahn, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Chun Ha-ram?increased party members' interest.

Will the PPP be able to continue this momentum in the party convention scheduled for the end of next month? Former committee chairman Han Dong-hoon recently set up an election camp office in the 'Daesan Building' in Yeouido, known as a prime election spot. Prominent party leadership candidates such as five-term lawmakers Na Kyung-won and Yoon Sang-hyun are also positively considering running. Na Kyung-won expressed her willingness to run, saying, "I will positively consider challenging for the next party leadership" (on CBS Radio on the 17th), and both Yoon Sang-hyun and former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min are also likely to run at this point.

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