Our Earth in Trouble... 80% Chance of Crossing the Global Warming Threshold Within 5 Years

It is projected that in at least one year within the next five years, the global temperature will rise beyond the "1.5 degrees Celsius" threshold, which is considered the critical limit for global warming. This means that the target set by the international community during the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is already being missed.

On the 5th (local time), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced in its "Global Climate Update" report that the average temperature over the past 12 months has risen by 1.63 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), cited by the WMO, tracks the temperature increase over rolling 12-month periods, and from February last year to January this year, the temperature rose by 1.52 degrees above pre-industrial levels, surpassing the 1.5-degree mark for the first time.

A man is cooling off by getting splashed with water in New Delhi, India.
Photo by AFP Yonhap News

원본보기 아이콘

According to the United Nations, Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the WMO, stated, "We have already temporarily exceeded this threshold on a monthly basis, and in fact, we have surpassed it over the recent 12-month period," adding, "The WMO is sounding the alarm." He also described the situation as a "grim reality."

From 2024 to 2028, the global surface temperature each year is expected to be 1.1 to 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels (1850?1900). In particular, there is an 86% probability that one of the next five years will exceed the current warmest year on record, 2023.

The likelihood that the global average temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels at least once in the next five years is 47%. This is a 15 percentage point increase from the 32% probability reported last year for the same metric. Ko Barrett explained, "The 1.5-degree target refers to long-term warming over decades," and clarified, "The fact that the average temperature over the recent 12 months has exceeded 1.5 degrees does not mean a permanent violation of the Paris Agreement's goals."

The WMO explained, "There is an 86% chance that at least one year during this period will surpass the current warmest year, 2023, setting a new temperature record." According to WMO observations, the global average temperature last year was 14.98 degrees Celsius, 1.45 degrees higher than pre-industrial levels. The previous highest record was 14.81 degrees in 2016.

The report predicts that this year, with the occurrence of La Ni?a, the tropical Pacific will temporarily cool. La Ni?a refers to the phenomenon where sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean cool, in contrast to El Ni?o, which involves warming of the same region. Despite the transition from El Ni?o to La Ni?a, the continued rise in global temperatures over the next five years reflects ongoing greenhouse gas emissions.

In April, citizens visiting the National Daegu Science Museum in Dalseong-gun, Daegu, observed the SOS (Science On a Sphere) system displaying this year's climate forecast. (This photo is not directly related to the article.)
[Photo by Yonhap News]

원본보기 아이콘

Previously, in 2015, 195 countries worldwide set a long-term goal through the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but this target has been at risk of being broken in recent years. According to WMO projections, there is a 47% chance that the global average temperature will exceed "+1.5 degrees" during the five years from 2024 to 2028.

Foreign media quoted United Nations Secretary-General Ant?nio Guterres urging, "All countries should ban advertising by fossil fuel companies." While there is a growing green movement, especially among economically advanced countries, coal, oil, and gas still supply more than three-quarters of the world's energy.

© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.