Why Was the 'Omul Balloon' Not Shot Down? [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

North Korea released a large number of 'filth balloons' containing waste and garbage across South Korea. This is a form of leaflet propaganda, essentially psychological warfare. Leaflets disappeared worldwide after World War II, but they have uniquely continued to persist on the Korean Peninsula, the only divided region in the world. South and North Korea have agreed several times to stop leaflet distribution, including in the 1972 July 4th Joint Statement, and again in 1992, 2004, and 2018. However, in January 2016, when South Korea resumed loudspeaker broadcasts in response to North Korea's fourth nuclear test, North Korea released a large number of leaflets. More than 2 million leaflets were collected that year, with South Korean military units collecting them on as many as 269 days.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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The contents of the balloons released by North Korea this time are filth. Since the night of the 28th, about 260 balloons have been observed nationwide in regions including Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Gyeongsang, and Jeolla. This is the second time since 2016 that filth balloons have been released. There are even concerns that if North Korea were to load biochemical weapons instead of filth, these balloons could be used as weapons.

The balloons that arrived this time had bags attached containing various filth such as manure including livestock excrement, cigarette butts, and used batteries. North Korea attached large plastic bags filled with filth to the balloons before releasing them.

At a regular briefing on the 30th, Lee Sung-jun, spokesperson for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated, "Various pollutants such as cigarette butts, compost, used batteries, and pieces of cloth were confirmed in the balloon payload, and relevant agencies are currently conducting detailed analyses," adding, "So far, no chemical or biological contaminants have been detected."

A timer capable of bursting the bag after a certain period was also attached. The balloon material appears to be Chinese-made latex, likely to prevent tearing in the air. It is presumed that helium or hydrogen gas was used to fill the balloons. Before release, holes are sometimes made in the balloons to prevent explosion due to pressure changes as altitude rises. Helium or hydrogen gas escapes through these holes, naturally regulating altitude. The military's Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Rapid Response Team (CRRT) and Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) units are dispatched to collect balloons that have fallen to the ground, and relevant agencies are conducting detailed analyses.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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North Korea's release of balloons filled with filth is analyzed as an attempt to humiliate the South Korean people. On the 29th, Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers' Party of North Korea, sarcastically referred to the filth balloons as "the people's freedom of expression," stating that there are limits to stopping their release and "politely requests understanding from the South Korean government." This is a twisted argument mocking the South Korean government's stance that leaflet distribution is freedom of expression and cannot be banned, claiming that they sent filth balloons in response to "guarantee the South Korean people's right to know."

When North Korea sends leaflet balloons, they typically release ordinary balloons or attach timers. If simply attached, the balloons burst upon touching the ground or after some time, while timers cause the balloons to burst at specific times.

In fact, large North Korean balloons collected in 2016 were equipped with timers and automatic explosion devices. They were designed to automatically burst at a preset time upon reaching the target altitude, releasing the leaflets. However, they did not have GPS devices. If large balloons are used in the future, there is a possibility that GPS receivers will be attached to confirm whether they have fallen in specific areas such as the Blue House or the National Assembly, along with timers and automatic explosion devices.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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The problem arises if biochemical weapons are loaded instead of filth. According to the 'Northeast Asia Security Situation Analysis' published by the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), North Korea possesses 2,500 to 5,000 tons of chemical agents. 5,000 tons of chemical agents could contaminate an area of 2,500 square kilometers, four times the size of Seoul. Experts point out that given the nationwide distribution of the balloons and the significant social impact, preparations for 'just in case' are necessary.

Shin Jong-woo, a research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "The balloon itself is not a means to accurately strike a target," but added, "It cannot be ruled out that balloons could be used for biochemical terrorism if employed as an attack."

At the end of March, the South Korean military shot down an unidentified flying object that crossed over from North Korea after issuing a warning. When the object moved from north of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea toward Baengnyeongdo, a South Korean Air Force KA-1 shot it down with machine gun fire around 4 p.m. Military authorities tracked the object closely and confirmed it was a balloon presumed to be for civilian advertising.

However, the situation is different this time. If balloons drift into rear or urban areas, concerns about civilian damage from debris increase. There is also a possibility that South Korean bullets could cross north of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) during shooting. Immediate responses such as pinpoint strikes by the military could cause more harm than good.

So far, the military has opted to safely collect balloons that have fallen to the ground instead of shooting them down. The military explained, "We responded considering various factors such as minimizing damage and operational efficiency." While the possibility of North Korea using balloons for biochemical terrorism or other attacks cannot be ruled out, the South Korean military assesses the likelihood as low. When balloons are released in large quantities like this time, shooting them down is also difficult. Last year, the United States waited a week after discovering a Chinese reconnaissance balloon over its territory before shooting it down, considering the potential for casualties.

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