[Click eStock] "Won-Dollar Expected to Gradually Rise Until Year-End"

Hana Securities forecasted on the 16th that the KRW-USD exchange rate will show a gradual upward trend until the end of the year.

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Recent conflicts between Israel and Iran have raised concerns that oil prices could surge. In response, the securities industry expects that if the high oil price situation persists, it will affect the future path of inflation in the United States.

Jeon Gyu-yeon, a researcher at Hana Securities, analyzed, "Assuming that international oil prices remain around $85 in the second quarter, the year-on-year oil price increase rate will reach 7 percentage points in April and 19 percentage points in May, driving up the headline consumer price index. This means it may be difficult to gain confidence in price stability until the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in July."

Jeon added, "During the delay in the timing of the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cuts, exchange rate volatility may increase. In particular, April is a month with a high seasonal possibility of dollar outflows due to foreign investors' dividend repatriation demand, so it is necessary to set a higher upper bound for the exchange rate."

He continued, "As major countries such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) independently implement interest rate cuts, the Fed's rate cuts are postponed to around the third quarter and limited to two times, which could lead the KRW-USD exchange rate to show an upward trend until the end of the year. Since the closing price on the 15th was 1,384 won, surpassing the first resistance level of 1,380 won, it is necessary to keep open the possibility of entering the 1,400 won range in the short term," he added.

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