One in Ten of the Working-Age Population Will Be Foreigners in 20 Years

by Song Seungseop

Published 11 Apr.2024 14:12(KST)

Foreign tourists visiting Myeongdong in Jung-gu, Seoul are enjoying sightseeing. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

An analysis suggests that foreigners could account for about 7% of the domestic population in 20 years. Foreigners responsible for production are also expected to make up 10% of the total.

On the 11th, Statistics Korea released the "Population Projections for Domestic and Foreigners Reflecting the 2022 Population Projections." The key point of this data is that future population projections are divided into domestic and foreign populations. The population structure is composed of three scenarios (high, medium, low) combining birth, death, and international migration.

According to the analysis, the total population is projected to decrease from 51.67 million in 2022 to 49.63 million in 2042 under the medium scenario. During this period, the domestic population decreases from 50.02 million (96.8%) to 46.77 million (94.3%). In contrast, the foreign population increases from 1.65 million (3.2%) to 2.85 million (5.7%). Under the high projection, the foreign population is estimated to increase to 3.61 million, accounting for 6.9% of the total population.

Narrowing down to the working-age population aged 15 to 64, the domestic population decreases from 35.27 million to 25.73 million in 20 years. On the other hand, the foreign working-age population grows from 1.47 million to 2.36 million. In terms of percentage, it rises from 4.0% to 8.4%, more than doubling. According to the high scenario, the foreign working-age population increases to 2.94 million, reaching 10.1% of the total.

The "migration background population," defined as those who have at least one foreign nationality in themselves or their parents, is expected to increase from 2.2 million to 4.04 million. The population composition ratio also rises from 4.3% to 8.1%. Among them, the youth population increases from 340,000 to 470,000, and the school-age population (6 to 21 years old) grows from 330,000 to 500,000.

Meanwhile, Statistics Korea analyzed that with ongoing aging, the domestic elderly population will nearly double from 8.89 million in 2022 to 17.25 million in 2042.