'Wild 200-Seat Landslide Victory' Actual Results Differed from Exit Polls, Ruling Party Maintains Constitutional Amendment Blockade Line

The exit polls conducted by the three major terrestrial broadcasters in the 22nd general election differed from the actual vote counts.

Contrary to the exit polls predicting that the Democratic Party of Korea and its satellite party, the Democratic United Party, would secure 'over 200 seats,' the Democratic Party won 175 seats. Meanwhile, the People Power Party and its satellite party, People Power Future, are expected to secure 109 seats, surpassing concerns that they might not exceed the 'constitutional amendment blocking line (100 seats).'

Vote counting is underway at the counting center set up at Shingwang Girls' High School in Yongsan-gu, Seoul, on the 10th, after the voting for the 22nd National Assembly election ended. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

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This slight discrepancy in results was due to differences in vote shares between the exit polls and the actual counts in certain constituencies.

For example, in Seoul Dongjak-eul, part of the 'Hangang Belt,' the exit polls showed a close race with Democratic Party candidate Ryu Sam-young at 52.3% and People Power Party candidate Na Kyung-won at 47.7%. However, the actual vote share had Na winning with 54.01%, defeating Ryu by about 9,000 votes.

Similar patterns were observed in Seongnam Bundang Gap and Eul. Although Democratic Party candidate Lee Kwang-jae was expected to have the advantage, candidate Ahn Cheol-soo won. Additionally, People Power Party candidate Kim Eun-hye secured victory over Kim Byung-wook, contrary to exit poll predictions.

In the 'Nakdonggang Belt,' the highly anticipated former Gyeongnam governor race predicted by exit polls was extremely close, with Democratic Party candidate Kim Doo-kwan at 50.6% and People Power Party candidate Kim Tae-ho at 49.4%. However, the actual results were reversed, with Kim Doo-kwan receiving 48.94% and Kim Tae-ho 51.05%.

In Seoul Dobong Gap and Mapo Gap, where a Democratic Party landslide was expected, People Power Party candidates won. Similarly, in Hwaseong Jeong, Gyeonggi Province, exit polls showed Democratic Party candidate Gong Young-woon defeating Lee Jun-seok of the Reform New Party, but Lee ultimately won.

One reason for the discrepancy between the exit polls and actual results is the record-high early voting rate. Under the current Public Official Election Act, exit polls are not allowed during early voting, which inevitably excludes a significant number of voters from the exit poll sample. Notably, 37.66% of early voters were seniors aged 60 and above, differing from previous elections. According to the National Election Commission, out of 44,280,011 eligible voters, 13,849,043 participated in early voting. Among early voters, those in their 60s were the largest group at 3,141,737 (22.69%), followed by those in their 50s at 3,117,556 (22.51%), 40s at 2,167,505 (15.65%), and those aged 70 and above at 2,073,764 (14.97%).

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