[Asia Report] Sudden Replacement of State President After One Year: Vietnam's Power Struggle

Truong, Former Vietnamese State President, Abruptly Resigns After One Year in Office

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Since China's doors have firmly closed, global courting toward Vietnam has been intensifying day by day. Vietnam is recognized as the top investment destination due to factors such as its geopolitical location, affordable and skilled labor force, development potential, and political stability. Recently, there has been a trend of shifting focus from labor-intensive industries to cutting-edge semiconductors in Vietnam.

Because of this, most world leaders wish to visit Vietnam. From the 19th to the 22nd of last month, a visit by King Willem-Alexander and Queen M?xima of the Netherlands to Vietnam was scheduled. However, this visit was abruptly canceled just before it was to take place because V? V?n Th??ng, the second most powerful figure overseeing Vietnam's diplomacy and the State President (54), suddenly resigned on March 20, exactly one year after his inauguration.

Although Vietnam has long been elevated as a major economic partner of South Korea, few Koreans remember the country's top leader. This is partly because the shadow of the giant 'Ho Chi Minh' still looms large, and also due to Vietnam's unique power-sharing system that does not tolerate a single leader. Vietnam is represented by the Communist Party General Secretary at the center, along with the State President (foreign affairs and defense), the Prime Minister (administration), and the National Assembly Chairperson (legislation). Recently, an unprecedented situation occurred where the State President changed twice within a year.

◇ War on Corruption? = When Th??ng was appointed State President last March at the youngest age in history, global media excitedly called it a "generational change in Vietnam." Indeed, in the Vietnam Communist Party-centered system dominated by revolutionary elders, the surprise rise of Th??ng, a relatively unknown figure from the Party Propaganda Department from the southern province of V?nh Long in his 50s, was shocking. The fact that Nguy?n Xu?n Ph?c, who rose from a long-serving Prime Minister to State President, was ousted due to corruption allegations also surprised the world. Naturally, interpretations of the main reason for the generational change diverged between 'anti-corruption reform' and 'strengthening Communist Party ideology.'

Surprisingly, the incident that led to his downfall just one year after taking office was also related to corruption allegations. The charges revealed that about 3 billion won in special favors were received from the real estate conglomerate Phuc Son Group while he was serving as the Party Secretary of Quang Ngai Province 15 years ago during the maintenance of his family cemetery. The Party's secret investigative agency uncovered the long-hidden corruption of the State President while investigating collusion between politics and business.

At the time of his appointment, Th??ng was known as the successor personally chosen by Nguy?n Ph? Tr?ng (79), the Communist Party General Secretary and the top-ranking power figure. At the pinnacle of Vietnam's power today stands the affectionate 'General Secretary Tr?ng,' a staunch Marxist-Leninist who recently has been leading a series of anti-corruption campaigns as the supreme commander. However, with his chosen successor falling within a year, suspicions have arisen about possible cracks in Tr?ng's power.

◇ Reformist Conservatives vs. Conservative Reformists = It is widely accepted that a fierce power struggle is underway within Vietnam's top leadership. Naturally, General Secretary Tr?ng is at the center. Since the 1990s reform (??i M?i) policies, he has devoted himself to restoring the loosened state discipline and has become a respected elder and influential figure in the Party.

There is also significant dissatisfaction with the political and economic aftershocks caused by the series of rectification (Ch?nh Phong) campaigns led by him, who advocates Communist Party orthodoxy. Former State President Xu?n Ph?c, Deputy Prime Ministers, more than ten ministers and diplomats, and about 1,000 senior officials have been impeached or ousted on corruption charges. Foreign investors worry that the Party's anti-corruption campaign reduces the flexibility and speed of the administration. For example, in October last year, the judiciary of B?nh D??ng Province arrested numerous officials involved in issuing thousands of illegal work permits to foreigners, which exacerbated labor market confusion.

While General Secretary Tr?ng's position in the Party is solid, it is also true that he has faced strong pressure for generational change. Moreover, with Th??ng's downfall, it has been proven that no other talent meets the standards of being both 'clean and ideologically sound.' Some interpret that Th??ng, a Catholic, was suspected of lacking staunch communist ideology while seeking to improve relations with the Vatican, but the dominant view sees this as a counterattack by the reformist faction emphasizing practical economic activities rather than a religious issue.

◇ Figures Eyeing the Next State President = After Th??ng's downfall, three new candidates for State President have been mentioned: V??ng ??nh Hu? (67), Chairperson of the National Assembly; T? L?m (67), Minister of Public Security who led Th??ng's ousting; and Tr??ng Th? Mai (66), Head of the Party Central Organization Commission. Since the National Assembly Chairperson is already a head of state-level figure, public attention focuses on the two who hold real power in the Party. Minister T? L?m is comparable to the Prosecutor General and Police Chief in South Korea, and Mai is a prominent female Communist Party leader.

If T? L?m becomes the next president, a hardline leader will emerge, while Mai's rise would be expected to bring a smooth female presidency without disrupting existing power relations. Therefore, the true significance of Th??ng's dismissal depends on who is chosen as his successor. Due to intense factional disputes, a decision might be made to leave the presidency vacant for a while and observe the situation.

Despite the fierce battles over policy and power, skepticism remains high about whether this will have a long-term negative impact on Vietnam's economy. Although the Party's rectification campaign has been clear recently, the gradual reforms over the past 30 years have produced significant results, leading to irreversible structural changes. British Vietnam economist Adam Ford analyzed, "Despite the long-standing prevalence of Stalinist policies, ??i M?i succeeded due to a combination of pragmatic leadership, external pressures and opportunities, gradualism and flexibility, practical policy mixes, focus on economic development, and learning from past mistakes." In other words, Vietnam's national system has already evolved gradually to an open system, and it is unlikely to suddenly reverse due to General Secretary Tr?ng's 'anti-corruption campaign.' Moreover, the long tradition of power-sharing has positively influenced foreign capital.

Although less than a month has passed since his downfall, talks of Th??ng's reinstatement are already emerging, suggesting that this power struggle may end in a 'well-presented compromise' typical of Vietnam.

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Jung Ho-jae, Visiting Scholar at Seoul National University Asia Center

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