Will the New Party of Cho Kuk Typhoon End as a Breeze in the Third Zone?

The Reform New Party and New Future, which had predicted a third-force wave in the April 10 general election, are struggling with support rates below expectations. Party leaders Lee Jun-seok and Lee Nak-yeon are trailing their opponents beyond the margin of error, and it is uncertain whether they will meet the 3% party support threshold required for proportional representation candidates to enter the National Assembly.

According to a public opinion poll released by Gallup Korea on the 29th of last month, the Reform New Party recorded 3% support, and New Future 1% in major party support. In terms of proportional representation voting intention, the Reform New Party and New Future showed support rates of 4% and 2%, respectively. This marks a month of stagnant support since the two leaders withdrew from the merger at the end of February. The survey was conducted nationwide from March 26 to 28 with 1,001 respondents aged 18 and over, at a 95% confidence level, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points. The method was random extraction of virtual mobile phone numbers via telephone interviews, with a response rate of 15.4%. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

The Reform New Party has also faced conflicts in nominating proportional representation candidates. Some members of the leadership who applied as proportional representation candidates instead of running in constituencies expressed dissatisfaction with the party’s nomination management committee’s decisions. The main cause of the conflict is the reduction in the number of winnable proportional representation slots, which was less than expected.

Lee Jun-seok, running in Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province, has been pressuring Democratic Party candidate Gong Young-woon, a former vice president of Hyundai Motor Company, day after day, but the effect on boosting support rates remains minimal.

Former leader Lee Nak-yeon, who left the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending the 'New Future Party Founding Supporters' Meeting' held at Seoul Women's Plaza in Dongjak-gu, Seoul on the 16th. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

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The situation is similar for New Future. Lee Nak-yeon, running in Gwangsan B, Gwangju, is trailing Democratic Party candidate Min Hyung-bae by a double-digit margin. Particularly, the proportional representation party support rate ranges from 2% to 3% depending on the polling agency, making it uncertain whether proportional candidates will even enter the National Assembly. Only Kim Jong-min, co-leader in Sejong Gap, is mentioned as having a chance of winning due to the Democratic Party candidate’s disqualification.

The reason the third-force wave ended up being a mere ripple, contrary to initial expectations, is the shift of attention to the Homeland Innovation Party. The Homeland Innovation Party has recorded double-digit support rates in various polls, ranking first among third parties excluding the two major parties. If this trend continues until the general election, it is widely expected that the Homeland Innovation Party could secure double-digit seats in the National Assembly.

Experts generally agree that it will be difficult to expect a third-force wave in this general election. They point out that the third-force parties failed to cultivate the political soil necessary for growth amid the extreme polarization of fandom politics and power struggles between the two major parties. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong said, "Third-force parties were placed in a very challenging environment from the start, caught between the opposition’s regime judgment theory and the ruling party’s opposition judgment theory," adding, "It is regrettable that they failed to maintain voters’ expectations after their founding."

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