Central Gyeonggi Revives... Sentiment Indicators Soar and Real Estate Sales Jump (Comprehensive)

The Chinese economy, which had shown sluggish performance due to the zero-COVID shock and supply chain conflicts with the United States, is showing signs of revival. Key sentiment indicators exceeded expectations and surged, and the real estate-related performance, which was the biggest risk factor, has entered a recovery phase. Local experts have diagnosed that the Chinese economy already hit bottom in the third quarter of last year.

On the 1st, Chinese economic media Caixin reported that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March, surveyed jointly with credit rating agency S&P, recorded 51.1, rising 0.2 points from the previous month (50.9). The figure exceeded market expectations (51.0) and marked the highest level since February last year (51.6).

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The PMI statistics, based on surveys of corporate purchasing managers, indicate economic trends in the relevant sector. A value above 50 signifies economic expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. Caixin's manufacturing PMI has shown an expansion phase for five consecutive months since October last year.

Earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that the official manufacturing PMI for March rose 1.7 points from the previous month to 50.8. The manufacturing PMI exceeding the baseline and returning to expansion territory is the first time in half a year since September last year (50.2). The non-manufacturing PMI released on the same day also recorded 53.0, surpassing both the previous month’s figure (51.4) and the forecast (51.3). Numerically, it is the highest level in nine months since June last year (53.2).

Positive signals related to real estate are also detected. According to China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC), one of China’s largest real estate research firms, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies last month reached 358.32 billion yuan (approximately 66.53 trillion KRW), a 92.8% increase from the previous month. The Chinese think tank E-Han reported that among the top 50 real estate companies by sales, 43 saw an increase in March sales compared to the previous month, with most increases exceeding 50%. Among them, Zhonghai, Lvcheng, Huarun, Zhaoxiang Shekou, Jianfa, Weshou, and Huafa showed sales growth rates exceeding 100%.

The top-selling company was Zhonghai Real Estate, which posted sales of 41.21 billion yuan in March alone. The Chinese Daily Economic News reported that the company’s Shanghai Xintiandi project received a strong response at the end of last month, setting a national record for single commercial housing sales with sales worth 19.65 billion yuan on the day of sale.

However, the situation has not yet returned to normal. Compared to the previous year, Zhonghai’s sales decreased by 4%, and among the 50 companies surveyed by E-Han think tank, only three companies saw sales growth compared to last year. On a cumulative basis from January to March, the sales of the top 100 companies decreased by 47.5% compared to the previous year.

There is also a diagnosis that the Chinese economy has already bottomed out and is in a rebound phase. The China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) of Renmin University of China stated in its quarterly (Q1) forum, "The bottom of the economy already appeared in the third quarter of last year," emphasizing that "prices and consumption are recovering, and exports increased by 7.1% year-on-year in January and February, eliminating the long-term negative trend." The forum report stressed, "If we focus on recent short-term changes, the economy this year will be stronger than last year."

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