Unusual Jojuk Innovation Party Storm, Will It Continue?

The Jo Guk Innovation Party's surge is unusual. If the expression "Jo Guk's River" appeared before the last general election, this time, Representative Jo Guk is being chosen as the judge of President Yoon Seok-yeol. The "clarity strategy" led by the anti-prosecution banner is evaluated to have created an initial consolidation of support. However, the general consensus is that it remains to be seen whether the high approval rating soaring into the 20% range will translate into actual vote shares.

According to the Jo Guk Innovation Party on the 27th, 20 billion won was raised for the recently launched "Blue Flame Fund" to cover election expenses, far exceeding the target amount of 5 billion won. This is the result of Representative Jo Guk declaring the party's founding on the 13th of last month and continuing an extensive campaign for a month. From the very first sentence of its platform, the Jo Guk Innovation Party advocates for the "end of prosecutorial dictatorship," directly targeting President Yoon Seok-yeol and Han Dong-hoon, the Emergency Response Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, as well as the government and ruling party.

Cho Kuk, leader of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, is holding a press conference on the "Prosecution's Illegal Surveillance of Civilians" at the National Assembly on the 25th. Representative Cho stated, "According to the investigative reporting outlet Newsbus, the prosecution has illegally collected, managed, and utilized personal information and private data from mobile phones that were not included in the search warrant issued by the court and were not subject to the search." He added, "Information unrelated to the investigation must be immediately destroyed." Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

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When the polling agency Realmeter conducted a survey commissioned by Energy Economy Newspaper from the 21st to 22nd, asking 1,004 voters aged 18 and over nationwide about their proportional representation party voting intentions, 27.7% chose the Jo Guk Innovation Party. It ranked second after the People’s Future Party (29.8%) and ahead of the Democratic Union Party (20.1%). (The survey was conducted via automated phone calls with 97% wireless and 3% landline, with a response rate of 4.5%. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

The first reason for the Jo Guk Innovation Party's surge is "clarity." The strategy, which prioritized a clear agenda of checking the prosecution, including the announcement of the "Han Dong-hoon Special Prosecutor Act," was recognized as a choice capable of judging the government. Professor Ha Sang-eung of Sogang University’s Department of Political Science and International Relations said, "In the general election phase, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung showed a nomination strategy aimed at making the Democratic Party his own rather than a will to become the majority party," adding, "In this situation, it seems that the figure Jo Guk was chosen as suitable to check President Yoon Seok-yeol."

Cho Kuk, leader of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, is holding a press conference on reforming prosecutorial and other power institutions at the National Assembly on the 27th. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

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Although the party has achieved initial consolidation of support, the Jo Guk Innovation Party cannot ignore judicial risks. First, Representative Jo Guk was sentenced to two years in prison in the second trial for allegations including his children's admission corruption. Among the 20 proportional representation candidates, only three?Representative Jo, former prosecutor Park Eun-jung at number 1, and Representative Hwang Un-ha at number 8?are under investigation or trial within the safe election zone.

However, there is also an analysis that these judicial risks or moral issues have acted as factors increasing support by resonating with public backlash against "excessive prosecution." Professor Ha said, "The average voter likely already considered Representative Jo Guk's judicial risks when choosing to support the Jo Guk Innovation Party," adding, "There seems to be an actual consensus that it is excessive for the prosecution to harass an entire family."

As the third zone underwent integration and division, it appears that non-affiliated or moderate voters also shifted to the Jo Guk Innovation Party. Ahead of the general election, reform parties such as the Reform New Party, New Future, and New Choice, which split from the existing two major parties while calling for "political reform," attempted a "big tent integration" around the Lunar New Year holiday but quickly fractured. Political commentator Kim Sang-il said, "Voters who lost hope in the two major parties must have felt tremendous disappointment seeing even the third zone unite and then break apart," adding, "Support shifted to the Jo Guk Innovation Party, which put forward a clear agenda with the intention to do at least one thing properly."

Cho Kuk, leader of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, is looking at Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, who is speaking at the Democratic Party leader's office in the National Assembly on the 5th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

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However, it is uncertain whether the Jo Guk Innovation Party's surge will continue through to actual general election voting. Representative Jo refers to the Democratic Party as his "home base," but the Democratic Party is countering the rise of the Jo Guk Innovation Party by advocating the "all-in for the Democratic Union" in proportional representation voting. Professor Kim Seong-su of Hanyang University’s Department of Political Science and International Relations said, "Progressive supporters disappointed with the Democratic Party’s 'Lee Jae-myung factionalization' are choosing the Jo Guk Innovation Party as an alternative that can clearly oppose the government," but he also diagnosed, "As the election approaches, the support base is likely to reconsolidate around the Democratic Party."

Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University’s Department of Political Science and International Relations predicted, "Many opposition supporters, especially those disappointed with leader Lee Jae-myung, have moved to the Jo Guk Innovation Party, so it remains to be seen whether this approval rating will translate into actual vote shares." He evaluated, "The difficulty for a third party to exist is influenced by the presidential system and the psychology of avoiding wasted votes," adding, "There is skepticism about whether the Jo Guk Innovation Party can actually make progress in regions other than Honam."

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