Democratic Party Without the 'Joguk Dilemma'... Hammer Blow or Vote Splitting?

The Democratic Party of Korea has once again fallen into a dilemma in front of the 'Jo Guk River.' The Jo Guk Innovation Party appears to have succeeded in rallying initial support with the clear stance of being 'anti-Yoon Seok-yeol.' However, it remains uncertain whether they will become a support force for the Democratic Party or cause vote splitting. Both Lee Jae-myung, the party leader, and Jo Guk, the leader of the Jo Guk Innovation Party, are focusing on their hardline supporters, raising concerns that this approach may negatively impact the expansion of the centrist voter base.

On the 5th, Lee and Jo met at the National Assembly and reinforced the 'government judgment theory.' This was their first official meeting since Jo, then a professor at Seoul National University Law School, visited Lee, who was the mayor of Seongnam at the time, to console him during his 'Sewol ferry hunger strike,' a political action Lee was the first politician to undertake. At this meeting, Jo said, "We will take the lead in fighting to end the Yoon Seok-yeol administration and prosecutorial dictatorship early, and boldly carry out campaigns that the Democratic Party must be cautious about even if it has the will."

Cho Kuk, leader of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, is looking at Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, who is speaking at the Democratic Party's office in the National Assembly on the 5th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

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Lee responded with "Let's win together," but his true feelings seem complicated. It is reported that at a recent high-level strategy meeting attended by the leadership, Lee instructed to report on ways to improve approval ratings and the perceived public opinion by region.

The Jo Guk Innovation Party has, for now, gained momentum. According to a party support survey released on the 6th by the polling firm Embrain Public, when asked about proportional representation party votes, the People’s Future Party (satellite party of the People Power Party) received 30%, the Democratic Party-affiliated proportional party (The Democratic United Party) 21%, and the Jo Guk Innovation Party reached up to 15% (for detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website). Whether this trend will serve as a '(leading attack) hammer line' for the Democratic Party remains uncertain. Since the Jo Guk Innovation Party is not the Democratic Party’s seat holder, there is a possibility of 'vote splitting.'

Choi Byung-cheon, head of the New Growth Economy Research Institute, diagnosed, "Choosing The Democratic United Party divides votes among other parties participating in the proportional representation, whereas votes for the Jo Guk Innovation Party are solely for that party, making it more cost-effective (price-performance ratio)." He added, "The fact that supporters who previously backed the Democratic Party are choosing the Jo Guk Innovation Party is a kind of boycott against The Democratic United Party," and evaluated, "It means that votes are being split."

On the 5th, Jo Guk, leader of the Jo Guk Innovation Party, is greeting Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, at the National Assembly. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

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There is also a view that the weaknesses of the two parties, tied to the 'fairness controversy,' could be fatal in the general election. Since the last presidential election, Lee has not resolved judicial risks such as the 'Daejang-dong incident.' Jo, who founded his party shortly after receiving a prison sentence in the second trial for 'children’s admission fraud,' is not free from 'shielding controversies.' Furthermore, the Jo Guk Innovation Party recruited former prosecutor Park Eun-jung, who was suspected of involvement in the 'targeted inspection' ordered by the Ministry of Justice during Yoon Seok-yeol’s tenure as Prosecutor General. On the 8th, Democratic Party lawmaker Hwang Un-ha also joined the Jo Guk Innovation Party. Hwang was sentenced to three years in prison in the first trial last November for allegations of a Blue House-ordered investigation and interference in the Ulsan mayoral election, and subsequently announced he would not run in the general election.

Voices of concern have also emerged within the party. A senior lawmaker expressed worry, saying, "'Judging Yoon Seok-yeol' is often replaced by the phrase 'Judging Lee Jae-myung,' which is concerning," and added, "Our party should lead the judgment, but aren’t we being counterattacked as the subject of judgment?"

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