Haley, Who Lost to Trump Even in Her Hometown... Why She Endures Despite the Poll Gap

In the upcoming November U.S. presidential election, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is set to face former President Donald Trump, the likely Republican nominee, is refusing to withdraw despite losing the primary in her hometown and political stronghold of South Carolina. This has drawn attention to the reasons behind her decision. Having solidified her image as the anti-Trump contender within the Republican Party, analysts suggest that Haley is preparing for the possibility of Trump’s nomination being withdrawn due to his legal risks and is also considering the next presidential election.

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On the 25th (local time), The Washington Post (WP) stated, "Haley’s defeat in South Carolina raises doubts about her viability," but also noted, "Haley has become a symbol of the anti-Trump vote and a representative of the anti-Trump camp."

Former Ambassador Haley is emerging as an alternative for the anti-Trump faction within the Republican Party. Unlike Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, known as the 'Little Trump,' who announced his withdrawal last month on the 21st, Haley has remained in the race, voicing moderate and centrist opinions while opposing Trump. A significant portion of Haley’s supporters have an anti-Trump stance. According to a WP survey, among voters who supported Haley in the South Carolina primary held the previous day, only 20% said they would be satisfied if Trump were nominated as the presidential candidate. Among Haley’s supporters, 75% believed Trump was physically and mentally unfit for the presidency. Almost no respondents said they would vote for Trump if he were found guilty.

Therefore, it is analyzed that Haley is continuing her primary campaign to raise her profile as a Trump challenger and to prepare for the possibility that Trump may be disqualified due to legal risks. Trump is currently facing 91 charges in four criminal indictments, including attempts to overturn the election results. On the 25th of next month, he will face criminal trial for hush money related to a sexual misconduct allegation, becoming the first current or former U.S. president to do so. Amid numerous legal controversies, if he is found guilty, public opinion within the Republican Party may grow in favor of withdrawing Trump’s nomination.

Political media outlet Politico commented last month, "It is hard to imagine a scenario where Haley takes Trump’s nomination, but there are few precedents for a candidate facing four criminal indictments," adding, "If Trump is convicted of a felony, it will breathe new life into Haley’s campaign."

For Haley, even if she is eliminated from this year’s presidential primary, she can increase her recognition as a candidate for the next presidential election and aim for the 2028 election.

Additionally, Wall Street’s support is a strong pillar for Haley. Major Wall Street donors, including the super PAC 'Americans for Prosperity (AFP),' which effectively has no donation limits, are funding Haley’s campaign due to concerns about the negative economic impact of Trump’s protectionist and anti-immigration policies. As long as campaign funds remain, it is analyzed that Haley has no reason to quit the race.

Particularly, although Haley lost the South Carolina primary held on the 24th, some voices emphasize the narrower-than-expected margin. Trump secured his fifth consecutive victory with 59.8% of the vote, defeating Haley, who received 39.5%. However, the 20 percentage point gap was smaller than the initially expected 30 points. Earlier, The Hill, a political media outlet, compiled polling results related to the South Carolina primary, showing Trump leading Haley by more than 30 percentage points (Trump 63.8%, Haley 33.1%). This suggests that the anti-Trump faction within the Republican Party and major Wall Street donors may continue to support Haley. Haley herself stated immediately after the primary, "I am a woman who keeps her promises," and declared, "I will not give up."

Meanwhile, former President Trump is expected to solidify his path to the general election on March 5, known as 'Super Tuesday.' On this day, simultaneous Republican primaries will be held in 16 states, including California and Texas, with 874 delegates?36% of the total?up for grabs between the two candidates.

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