[Exclusive] "Only the beginning was written"... Ministry of Health and Welfare's 'Medical School Expansion Seoul National University Study', Only 5 Pages Out of 276 Released

The Ministry of Health and Welfare's research data from Seoul National University, which was belatedly disclosed on the 16th as the basis for increasing medical school admissions, has been confirmed to be a summary comprising only 1.8% of the entire report published in a journal prior to the full results report. Professor Hong Yoon-chul of Seoul National University College of Medicine (Preventive Medicine), who conducted the study, raised concerns about expanding medical school quotas, stating, "The conclusion of the full report is important, not the summary."

On the 16th, residents of the 'Big 5' major hospitals in the Seoul metropolitan area, who opposed the government's plan to increase medical school admissions, are seen moving at a large hospital in Seoul after announcing their intention to submit resignation letters. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

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According to materials obtained by Asia Economy on the 19th through the office of Shin Hyun-young, a member of the National Assembly’s Health and Welfare Committee from the Democratic Party of Korea, the length of Professor Hong’s "Study on the Adequacy of Physician Workforce" totaled 276 pages. The study was conducted with support from the Korea Hospital Association, and the results report was released in October 2020. According to the Korea Hospital Association, the study is classified as "non-disclosed material" due to internal circumstances and is not publicly available. The data cited by the Ministry of Health and Welfare as the basis for increasing medical school admissions is a kind of summary published in a journal one month before the full results report, consisting of only 5 pages.

On the 16th, the Ministry of Health and Welfare announced Professor Hong’s report titled "Study on the Adequacy of Physician Workforce for Preparing for Future Society" as the basis for increasing medical school admissions. The research report disclosed by the Ministry was published in the Korea Medical Association’s Medical Policy Research Institute’s quarterly journal, Medical Policy Forum, Volume 18, Issue 3 (No. 70), pages 19?23, in September 2020. The report includes a table showing "the timing and number of physicians most lacking under the assumption of increased admission quotas." The report predicted that if the current medical school quota is maintained, there will be a shortage of 26,570 physicians by 2050, and if admissions increase by 1,500, there will still be a shortage of 3,035 physicians. The Ministry’s Medical Workforce Policy Division also submitted a "Physician Workforce Supply and Demand Projection Report" to Shin Hyun-young’s office on May 12 last year, stating, "Considering both the increase in physician demand due to population aging and the decrease due to population decline, there will be a shortage of 18,000 physicians in 2040 and 27,000 in 2050 (2020, Seoul National University Hong Yoon-chul)."

However, examining the conclusion of the full report released a month later, the study argued that "when establishing future physician workforce supply and demand policies, it is necessary to consider not only the issue of physician supply and demand but also medical utilization behavior and, further, improvements in the medical delivery system to meet the medical needs of the public." It stated, "It is necessary to establish health care policy directions considering National Health Insurance finances and the public’s ability to pay to improve the quality of medical services, and to propose physician workforce supply and demand policies that meet these requirements." Furthermore, it said, "It is thought necessary to establish physician workforce supply and demand policies considering not only changing medical demand but also national health care service policy directions, the medical delivery system, and medical fees."

The last page (page 276) of the full report on the "Study on the Adequacy of Medical Personnel" by Professor Hong Yoon-chul of Seoul National University College of Medicine (Preventive Medicine). On the 16th, the Ministry of Health and Welfare stated that the 5-page summary of this study was the basis for increasing the number of medical students.
[Image source=Office of Shin Hyun-young, Democratic Party of Korea]

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In a phone interview with this paper, Professor Hong said, "The conclusion of the study is that an increase in physician workforce can only be organized after medical system reform is implemented." Regarding the government’s claim that concerns from the medical community would be dispelled by increasing medical school admissions along with an essential medical care package, he pointed out, "The problem is that the current government’s essential medical care package lacks concrete implementation plans or roadmaps," criticizing the order of reforms as incorrect. Previously, even before the government released the basis for increasing medical school admissions, he stated, "I have continuously argued that the scale of increase should be calculated after fixing the problematic medical system, but it seems the Ministry of Health and Welfare only used the front part of the report."

Meanwhile, the Medical Policy Research Institute of the Korea Medical Association, which published the quarterly journal, also stated that the report was only summarized as one of the special feature articles in the issue at that time. A representative of the Medical Policy Research Institute said, "Six papers on physician workforce supply and demand were summarized in 4?5 pages each and published," adding, "If you want to refer to the research, it is appropriate to look at the full report."

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