Democrats on the Brink of 'Cutoff Notice'... Lee Says "New Wine in New Bottles"

The Democratic Party of Korea has entered the final countdown for 'cutoff notifications.' Representative Lee Jae-myung is actively persuading senior members not to run and is taking the lead in this effort. However, it is expected that noise surrounding the nomination process will increase, as it is difficult to find pro-Lee figures among those targeted for 'decisive' reform.

According to the Democratic Party on the 14th, the party's nomination management committee is preparing to notify the bottom 20% of incumbent lawmakers based on evaluations. Incumbents in the bottom 20% will have 20% of their primary votes deducted, and those in the lowest 10% will have 30% deducted. Because of this, those in the lowest 10% are effectively considered 'excluded from nomination.' A party leadership official told Asia Economy in a phone interview that "cutoff notifications could begin as early as the beginning of next week."

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 7th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

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Initially, the cutoff list was expected to be notified immediately after the Lunar New Year holiday. Lim Hyuk-baek, chairman of the nomination management committee, cited the 'redistricting' issue as the reason for the delay. He said, "If redistricting is not completed, primaries cannot be held," adding, "(The announcement of the cutoff list) is also delayed due to the redistricting issue." The Democratic Party will conduct party member voting and opinion polls for the first round of primaries starting on the 19th. Despite the apparent reason, there is also an interpretation that the delay is a speed adjustment to reduce conflicts arising from nomination exclusions.

However, as Representative Lee Jae-myung has taken the forefront of the nomination process, noise seems to be increasing. Recently, Lee directly urged three-term incumbent In Jae-geun and former lawmakers Moon Hak-jin and Lee Jong-gul not to run. A key Democratic Party official explained, "It is a request to pave the way for younger members to enter politics." Another official said, "(Representative Lee Jae-myung) has a strong will for political reform that meets the public's expectations and a determination to purge so-called 'old boys,' and it seems this is being put into action."

Discontent toward Representative Lee is being expressed both inside and outside the party. Former lawmaker Moon Hak-jin said, "On the 27th of last month, Representative Lee Jae-myung called me and urged me not to run, saying my opinion poll support rate was the lowest." He also claimed that the opinion polls were manipulated to favor a pro-Lee outside-the-National Assembly organization member from his electoral district, the 'Deominju National Innovation Council.'

Screenshot of Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea's Facebook page

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Typically, party leaders maintain distance from the nomination committee to avoid controversy over interference in nominations. Nevertheless, in the early hours of the day, Representative Lee wrote on his Facebook, "New wine must be put into new wineskins; we must move toward the future." At the morning supreme council meeting, he reiterated, "Though the buds are precious, they must wither for new shoots to grow," and "New branches must yield to other new branches, and the water of the Yangtze River pushes the front waves with the back waves." This is interpreted as expressing his determination to increase the scale of political renewal despite various noises.

However, pro-Lee figures are virtually absent from those targeted for 'reform.' This has led to interpretations that Representative Lee's 'traffic control' is a preliminary move to pressure pro-Moon or anti-Lee figures not to run. If many anti-Lee figures are excluded from nominations, it is not unlikely that before primaries are held, there could be a series of defections or new party formations, creating multiple variables.

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