5 Million Elementary, Middle, and High School Students to Decline by 2026

As the low birthrate phenomenon continues, it is estimated that the number of elementary, middle, and high school students in South Korea will fall below 5 million in 2026, two years from now. Also, the number of first-grade elementary school students, which dropped to the 300,000 range this year, is expected to enter the 200,000 range within two years.

According to the '2024~2029 Student Number Projection' data from the Korea Educational Development Institute (KEDI) released on the 12th, the total number of elementary, middle, and high school students nationwide this year is 5,131,218. The number of students in 2026, two years from now, is expected to decrease to 4,833,026, breaking the 5 million mark. KEDI projects student numbers based on resident registration population statistics and other data to respond to future changes such as the decline in school-age population and to provide basic data for education policy formulation. This calculation applies enrollment rates, graduation rates, promotion rates, and advancement rates to the population aged 6 by city and province.

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With the recent intensification of the low birthrate phenomenon, the number of elementary, middle, and high school students continues to decline, and it is expected to decrease to 4,275,022 by 2029. This means that the number of students will have dropped by nearly 1 million in just over five years.

The decline in the school-age population is particularly noticeable in the number of first-grade students entering elementary school. The number of first-grade elementary students this year is expected to be 347,950, decreasing to 319,935 next year, and further dropping to 290,686 in 2026. By 2029, five years from now, it is projected to fall to 244,965, more than 100,000 fewer than this year.

According to basic education statistics, the number of first-grade elementary students (as of April 1) last year was 401,752. This means that the 400,000 range was broken two years ago, and now the number is falling into the 300,000 range. Especially as the population in non-metropolitan areas rapidly decreases, it is estimated that by 2029, in more than half of the 17 cities and provinces nationwide, the number of first-grade elementary students will fall below 10,000.

As the school-age population continues to decline, the quota for public school teachers in elementary, middle, and high schools will also decrease by more than 4,000 this year.

The government recently completed a legislative notice for the partial amendment of the 'Regulations on the Quota of National Public Officials Assigned to Local Education Administrative Agencies and Public Schools at All Levels,' which includes a reduction of 4,296 public school teachers in elementary and secondary schools. The reduction in public school teachers has expanded by 26.3% compared to last year (3,401 teachers).

According to the amended regulations, the quota for public elementary school teachers will decrease from 148,683 to 146,559, a reduction of 2,124. Among them, the teacher quota will decrease by 2,139 to 134,323. The quotas for principals (6,054) and vice principals (6,182) will increase by 10 and 5, respectively. The quota for middle and high school teachers will be reduced by 2,172, from 140,881 to 138,709. Similarly, while the quotas for principals and vice principals in middle and high schools will slightly increase, the teacher quota will decrease by 2,188 to 131,142.

The number of births announced by Statistics Korea was as high as 640,000 in 2000 but dropped to 470,000 in 2010 and further fell below 300,000 to 272,000 in 2020. As a result, the number of elementary, middle, and high school students is expected to decline rapidly in the future.

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