As Trump's influence grows, the possibility of Ukraine's 'slow-motion defeat' increases

Analysis has emerged suggesting that if U.S. support for Ukraine, which is engaged in a prolonged conflict with Russia, continues to stall as it is now, Ukraine will inevitably face defeat.

The British Guardian, in an article analyzing the impact of former President Donald Trump's significant influence on U.S. domestic affairs on the 11th (local time), predicted that "if Europe does not fill the gap left by the U.S. support, Ukraine will lose in 'slow motion.'"

In the U.S., a security-related budget bill including $60 billion (approximately 80 trillion KRW) in aid for Ukraine is currently pending in the Senate. The bill's passage is uncertain as the Republican majority in the House, led by pro-Trump hardliners, firmly opposes additional support for Ukraine.

Trump, a leading Republican presidential candidate, opposes further aid to Ukraine and has pledged that if he wins re-election in November, he will immediately end the war through a bilateral compromise.

Former President Trump is also pressuring NATO allies to take responsibility for their own security. During a campaign rally on the 10th, he stated that if NATO allies do not increase their security cost-sharing contributions, it would encourage Russia to use military force.

The Guardian forecasted that if this situation, where Trump influences U.S. foreign policy, continues, Ukraine will gradually lose to Russia starting next year.

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(New York, Reuters = Yonhap News) Former U.S. President and leading Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is seen showing a clenched fist to supporters as he leaves his Manhattan residence in New York on the 25th (local time). Trump testified for three minutes at a defamation trial held at the New York Manhattan District Court that day. 2024.01.26
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Currently, while Russia fires an estimated 10,000 shells per day, Ukraine is believed to be able to use only about 2,000 shells daily.

In particular, artillery units of Ukraine's 22nd Brigade operating between Chasiv Yar and Bakhmut in Donetsk are reportedly facing a severe shortage of shells. To conserve Soviet-made 152mm shells, they limit the number of shells fired per night to three.

On the other hand, Russia has succeeded in transitioning to a "war economy" and is prepared to sustain a long-term conflict. It is estimated that Russia will produce about 4.5 million shells this year at factories in its capital, Moscow, which amounts to over 12,000 shells produced daily.

Additionally, Russia is expected to spend more than 6.5% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense this year. Sam Cranny-Evans of the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, stated, "This means Ukraine can no longer suppress Russian artillery," adding, "The Ukrainian forces, struggling to counterattack, can only try to survive."

Experts point out that if European support is delayed, the possibility of Ukraine's defeat increases. Evans predicted, "The war will last at least another year," and emphasized, "European allies must fill the gap left by the U.S. to prevent the situation from deteriorating into a catastrophe." However, he also noted a limitation that, although the European Union (EU) dramatically agreed earlier this month to provide 50 billion euros (approximately 72 trillion KRW) in aid to Ukraine, questions remain unresolved regarding additional support in the form of ammunition and other weapons.

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