Korea Eximbank "Exports in 1Q This Year Expected to Reach $165 Billion"

Export containers are being loaded onto a ship at Busan North Port. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

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The Korea Eximbank Overseas Economic Research Institute forecasted that exports in the first quarter of this year will increase by 8-9% compared to the same period last year.

According to the '2023 Q4 Export Performance Evaluation and 2024 Q1 Outlook' released by the Eximbank on the 5th, exports in the first quarter of this year are expected to reach $165 billion. The basis for this forecast includes the fact that the decline in the export leading index compared to the same period last year has narrowed for two consecutive quarters, and the semiconductor industry, which accounts for a large portion of exports, is improving.

The export leading index for the first quarter of this year was 122.3, down 1.5 points (p) from the same period last year. Compared to 122.7 in Q3 and 124.1 in Q4 of last year, the rate of decline is gradually decreasing.

The Eximbank stated, "If uncertainties expand due to delayed economic recovery in China and increased geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine war or Middle East conflicts, the growth rate of exports could be reduced."

Meanwhile, the Eximbank reported that according to a survey conducted from the 2nd to the 8th of last month targeting 56 large domestic companies and 458 small and medium-sized enterprises, 'unstable won exchange rates' (42.0%) was cited as the biggest difficulty. This was followed by decreased demand due to economic slowdown (35.6%) and rising raw material prices (29.4%).

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