"4 Reasons Why Korea Cannot Win"... Stamina, Style, Record, and What Is the Fourth?

As the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) Asian Cup quarterfinal match between South Korea and Australia approaches, a local Australian media outlet confidently predicted victory by reporting '4 Reasons Why Australia Can Beat South Korea.'

Male national soccer team players. [Image source=Korea Football Association]

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On the 1st (local time), the Australian newspaper The Sydney Morning Herald stated, "This year's Asian Cup presents an opportunity for the Socceroos (Australia's national soccer team nickname). If Australia wins the next match, they will face Jordan or Tajikistan in the semifinals," anticipating that the match against South Korea will be the biggest hurdle to reaching the final.

However, the outlet expressed confidence in Australia's quarterfinal victory by citing four reasons, the first being stamina. Australia played their round of 16 match against Indonesia on January 28 and won relatively easily with a 4-0 scoreline, whereas South Korea secured a hard-fought victory against Saudi Arabia on the 31st after a penalty shootout. The match duration also differed, with Australia playing 90 minutes and South Korea playing 120 minutes including the penalty shootout. The media explained, "Australia will come out after nearly two more days of rest, and South Korea's Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in have played every match without substitution, while Seol Young-woo, Kim Min-jae, Hwang In-beom, and Lee Jae-sung have already played over 300 minutes." They added, "In contrast, Australia has only four players who have played over 300 minutes and no injured players."

The second reason favoring Australia was the playing style of Australian coach Graham Arnold. The media noted, "Arnold has often been criticized for inefficient attacks and a lack of functionality in the midfield," but explained, "These issues become more pronounced when playing against relatively weaker teams." Since many Australian players compete in Europe's second and third-tier leagues, it is expected that South Korea, which has a better player lineup, will not adopt a defensive game plan.

They continued, "South Korea recorded 58% possession against Saudi Arabia, and if they maintain similar possession against Australia, it could actually allow Australia to play a more comfortable game," expressing optimism by stating, "At the World Cup, Coach Arnold successfully executed cautious game management combined with counterattacks."

Before the Round of 16 match between Australia and Indonesia at the 2023 AFC Asian Cup held at the Jassim bin Hamad Stadium in Doha, Qatar, the Australian national football team players are taking photos. [Image source=Yonhap News]

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The third reason cited was South Korea's head coach J?rgen Klinsmann (Germany). The media reported, "There is widespread concern in South Korea that the most talented 'golden generation' of players in the history of the national team is being wasted," adding, "Korean football fans believe Klinsmann's tactics are not suitable for the team, and there are complaints about the limited time he has spent in South Korea since taking charge." The outlet also introduced an interview with Son Heung-min's father, Son Woong-jung, conducted by Yonhap News Agency. Son Woong-jung expressed concern, saying, "If they win the championship in such an unprepared state, how many times will they keep exploiting that result without change? I'm worried that Korean football might become sick." The media conveyed hope by stating, "The players on the national team might share the same view as Son Heung-min's father."

The final reason pointed out was Australia's historical advantage in head-to-head records. The media stated, "Although Australia drew once and lost once to South Korea in the last two matches, these were friendly games and hold little significance," emphasizing, "In official competitions over the past 23 years, Australia has lost to South Korea only once." They mentioned that South Korea won 1-0 in the group stage of the 2015 Asian Cup held in Australia, but since both teams had already secured quarterfinal spots, the result was not crucial. They also highlighted that Australia defeated South Korea 2-1 in the final of that tournament.

Football statistics and records specialist media Opta analyzed that Klinsmann's team has a 47.3% chance of defeating Australia in the quarterfinals. This is the first time South Korea's predicted winning probability has fallen below 50% in this tournament. Australia has conceded only one goal in four matches, tying with host Qatar for the fewest goals conceded. The South Korea vs. Australia quarterfinal will take place at 12:30 AM on the 3rd at Al Janoub Stadium in Al Wakrah, Qatar.

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