"Possibility of Rapid Change in North Korea-US Relations in December Depending on US Presidential Election Results"

There are predictions that North Korea-US relations could change drastically if President Donald Trump is elected in the US presidential election later this year.

On the 1st, the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy stated in its report titled "Evaluation of North Korea's Foreign Relations in 2023 and Outlook for 2024" that "Ahead of the presidential election scheduled for November 2024, it is expected that the Biden administration will not make significant changes to the current North Korea policy, which pursues diplomatic engagement," but also noted that "depending on the election results, North Korea-US relations could change drastically in December."

Choi Jang-ho, head of the International Cooperation Team at the World Area Studies Center 1, said, "The US government is applying an integrated deterrence strategy, which strengthens cooperation with key allies to pressure China, to its response to North Korea's nuclear program," but added, "If former President Trump is re-elected in the November election, North Korea-US relations could change drastically."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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He also added, "Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), mentioned the possibility of tolerating North Korea's nuclear program, meaning North Korea could halt the development of new nuclear weapons in exchange for easing economic sanctions against it."

This suggests that a Trump administration could move toward effectively tolerating North Korea's nuclear program.

Regarding China, it is expected that discussions to resume cooperation will likely take place in commemoration of the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations. Choi said, "2024 marks the 75th anniversary of North Korea-China diplomatic relations, and the Day of the Sun (April 15) is expected to serve as a turning point for normalizing North Korea-China foreign cooperation," adding, "full border reopening, resumption of tourism cooperation with China, and the return of overseas dispatched workers will be key agenda items."

So far, North Korea has expanded cooperation with Russia, but since expanding cooperation with Russia cannot replace cooperation with China, it is assessed that discussions on cooperation with China will take place in the first half of this year. Choi said, "For improving North Korea's economic situation, foreign cooperation with China is more advantageous than cooperation with Russia, and the fields of cooperation differ in nature, making it difficult for Russia to replace China," adding, "Regarding overseas dispatched workers, China mainly dispatches women working in restaurants or light industry, whereas Russia mainly dispatches men engaged in logging and construction, so the nature and characteristics of overseas dispatched workers differ."

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