Chinese Expert: "The Power Gap Between the US and China May Widen Over the Next 10 Years"

A Chinese political scientist has argued that the power gap between China and the United States may widen further over the next decade.

U.S. President Joe Biden (first from the right) is attending the U.S.-China summit held in Woodside near San Francisco, California, last November during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting, listening to remarks by Chinese President Xi Jinping (first from the left).
[Photo by AP Yonhap News]

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According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) in Hong Kong on the 17th, Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, stated at an international relations outlook seminar held at Tsinghua University on the 13th that "the power gap between China and the U.S. over the next 10 years may widen rather than narrow amid intensified competition between the two countries." He added, "Even if China and the U.S. record lower annual economic growth rates over the next decade, they will continue to keep distance not only from each other but also from other economies."

He said, "Most of the overestimation of China's economic development has been influenced by wishful thinking," urging Chinese scholars to avoid such thinking in analyzing China-U.S. relations. Last month, the UK think tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasted in its long-term outlook report, 'World Economic League Table 2024,' that China would surpass the U.S. in 2037 to become the world's largest economy by gross domestic product (GDP). Previously, CEBR had predicted that China would become the world's largest economy as early as 2028.

However, the recent report reflected the slowdown in China's growth pace, as the Chinese economy continued to underperform despite last year's reopening (resumption of economic activities). According to a survey released on the 15th by the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry in China, about three-quarters of the 1,713 member companies surveyed do not expect the Chinese economy to improve this year. Wang Yongli, manager at China International Futures Co., Ltd., stated in an October report last year that due to China's economic stagnation and the weakening yuan, China's GDP shrank from 77.3% of the U.S. GDP in 2021 to 64.5% in the first half of last year.

Director Yan forecasted, "With the global rise of populism over the next decade, international confrontations will increase and cooperation will decrease." He also noted that even if the trade volume between China and the U.S. is expected to grow, the overall role of trade in China-U.S. relations will diminish. He lamented that when he projected China's international relations 10 years ago, he did not expect that most countries would choose to keep their distance from China amid China-U.S. competition.

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