Lai Ching-te's Election Extends Taiwan's 'Pro-US' Regime for 4 More Years... Rising International Tensions

In the Taiwanese presidential election, Lai Ching-te, the candidate from the pro-Taiwan independence and pro-American Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was elected. With the DPP extending its rule for another four years, tensions between Taiwan and China are expected to intensify. Geopolitical tensions in East Asia are likely to escalate.

After his victory was confirmed on the 13th, Lai Ching-te expressed, "Taiwan has brought the first victory of the democratic camp in the world's most closely watched first election of the year." He also stated that Taiwan has decided to support democracy over authoritarianism and will continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with democratic allies.

President-elect Lai Ching-te of Taiwan
[Image source=Yonhap News]

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Lai won with 40.05% of the vote, defeating Hou You-yi of the pro-China Kuomintang (KMT), the main opposition party, who received 33.49%, and Ko Wen-je of the centrist Taiwan People's Party (TPP), the second opposition party, who received 26.46%.

Since the introduction of direct presidential elections in Taiwan in 1996, the DPP and KMT have alternated in power every eight years. However, with Lai's victory this time, the eight-year alternation formula has been broken for the first time, allowing the DPP to maintain power for 12 consecutive years.

Lai, born in 1959, is a self-made man born in New Taipei City as the son of a miner. He lost his father in a mining accident when he was two years old and was raised by his single mother. During his final campaign rally in New Taipei City on the 12th, he said, "I am very proud to be the son of a miner."

After graduating from the National Taiwan University College of Medicine and earning a master's degree in public health from Harvard University in the United States, he worked as a doctor before entering politics in 1994. He served four terms as a legislator, became mayor of Tainan in 2010, and was appointed the second Premier under President Tsai Ing-wen's administration in 2017. Although he lost the DPP presidential primary to President Tsai in 2019, he served as Vice President during Tsai's second term starting in May 2020.

Lai holds a stronger pro-independence and anti-China stance than President Tsai. He has drawn China's ire with statements rejecting the "One China" principle advocated by China. When Lai became the DPP presidential candidate, China increased its criticism, labeling him a "Taiwan independence separatist."

Although Lai said immediately after his election, "I will choose dialogue over confrontation," clashes with China seem inevitable. The cross-strait tensions that persisted during Tsai Ing-wen's eight years in office are expected to deepen further.

The New York Times (NYT) analyzed China's Taiwan Affairs Office statement that "the basic pattern and development direction of cross-strait relations cannot be changed" as confirming "a brinkmanship tactic with ongoing and intensifying tensions." Jason Shih, a former KMT legislator and researcher at Harvard Kennedy School's Mason Program, told the NYT that "there is a high likelihood of stronger military and economic pressure and attacks from China."

China repeatedly warned before the election that cross-strait tensions would escalate if Lai Ching-te were elected. There have been multiple predictions domestically and internationally that China would increase military pressure on Taiwan and expand economic sanctions. On the 9th, China announced it was considering additional measures to suspend tariff reductions on Taiwanese agricultural and aquatic products, machinery, automobile parts, and textiles under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). Last December, China suspended tariff reductions on 12 Taiwanese chemical products under ECFA, and this could be extended to other products.

The United States, which prefers the status quo, welcomed the DPP's victory but managed its response carefully. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated, "The relationship between the United States and Taiwan, based on democratic values, will expand and deepen across economic, cultural, and interpersonal exchanges." However, President Joe Biden earlier expressed a fundamental position, saying, "We do not support Taiwan independence."

Supporters gathered in front of the Minjin Party election camp on the 13th, when the election was held. [Image source=Yonhap News]

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Conflicts between China and Taiwan are expected to intensify particularly around semiconductors. Taiwan is home to TSMC, the world's largest foundry (semiconductor contract manufacturer). After his election, Lai said at a press conference, "I will actively support the semiconductor industry."

If cross-strait tensions escalate and China applies comprehensive military and economic pressure, global companies that need advanced semiconductors might choose South Korea as a safer alternative to Taiwan. However, with the U.S. imposing restrictions on China's access to semiconductors and other advanced industries, Taiwan plays a key role in sanctions against China. If the U.S. increases its containment of China through Taiwan, there is a risk that its ally South Korea could be affected. A representative example is China’s export controls last year on critical minerals such as gallium and germanium used in batteries and semiconductors.

Although the DPP won the presidential election, it failed to secure a majority in the legislative elections. The internal environment facing the president-elect is challenging. Lai received 40.05% of the vote. This contrasts with President Tsai's 57.1% vote share in a two-way race against the KMT four years ago. The DPP also failed to achieve a majority in the legislature. The KMT secured 52 seats, the most in the legislature, while the DPP won 51 seats, down from 61 four years ago. The second opposition party, the Taiwan People's Party, won 8 seats, becoming a potential kingmaker.

Therefore, even the hardline pro-China stance of Lai may not easily translate into action. Chang Chun-hao, a professor of political science at Tunghai University in Taipei, told the South China Morning Post (SCMP), "Now that the Taiwan People's Party holds influence in the legislature, it will be difficult for the DPP to push through policies. If the KMT and the Taiwan People's Party form a coalition to secure a majority, policies promoting exchanges between China and Taiwan could increase."

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