'US-China Proxy War' 16th Taiwan Presidential Election Voting Ends...The World Watches Closely

by Byun Seonjin

Published 13 Jan.2024 17:45(KST)

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The 16th Taiwan presidential election, described as a 'proxy war between the US and China,' closed at 4 p.m. on the 13th (5 p.m. Korean time).

According to the Taiwan Central Election Commission, the election that ended at 4 p.m. on that day selected the president and vice president as well as 113 legislators (members of the Legislative Yuan). This combined presidential and legislative election marks the eighth time since 1996 that Taiwan's president has been directly elected by its citizens, following the era of Kuomintang dictatorship. Among Taiwan's total population of about 24 million, there are 19.55 million eligible voters aged 20 and above. The voter turnout in the previous 2020 presidential election was 74.9%.

The election was conducted at over 17,000 polling stations across Taiwan. Compared to other countries, Taiwan has a relatively short voting period. Additionally, vote counting begins immediately at each polling station after voting ends.

The world’s attention is focused on the results of this election.

Since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is pro-US and pro-independence, and the Kuomintang (KMT) is pro-China and the main opposition party, this Taiwan election is viewed as a proxy battle between the US and China. Amid the US-China hegemonic competition, Taiwan hosts TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor foundry.

Taiwanese voters have alternated between DPP and KMT governments every eight years since 2000. If this cycle holds, the DPP is expected to take power. In the latest poll on the 2nd, DPP candidates Lai Ching-te for president and Xiao Meiqin for vice president led with 32% support, ahead of KMT candidates Hou You-yi for president and Chao Shao-kang for vice president at 27%.

However, the rise of the third party, the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), could disrupt the two-party dominance that has lasted for about 20 years. The TPP has gained the support of the 20-30s demographic by addressing pressing livelihood issues such as high housing prices and employment concerns. The TPP candidates Ko Wen-je for president and Wu Xin-ying for vice president had a recent poll support rate of 21%, ranking third, which is not insignificant. There are 2.85 million voters aged 20-29 and 3.23 million aged 30-39. Even if the TPP does not win the presidency, it is widely expected that the party could increase its number of legislators from the current five to eight or more, thereby strengthening its political influence in the future.

Meanwhile, the outcome of this Taiwan election is expected to have a significant impact on global security and economic landscapes, depending on whether the pro-US or pro-China candidate wins.

In particular, if the pro-China candidate is elected president, the US, which has been blocking China's access to advanced technologies such as semiconductors, will need to devise new strategies. This could also put pressure on South Korea to take a clear stance on the Taiwan issue. However, there are analyses suggesting that South Korea's semiconductor industry, including Samsung Electronics, could benefit indirectly.