Japanese Experts: "At This Rate, Population Will Halve... Decreasing to 63 Million by 2100"

"If things continue like this, Japan and its people will be caught in a massive vortex of population decline and sink."

On the 10th, Japan's private advisory body, the Population Strategy Council, announced 'Population Vision 2100,' which summarizes Japan's future low birthrate measures. The Population Strategy Council criticized the measures the Japanese government has taken so far to address low birthrates and aging, warning that if things continue this way, Japan's total population will decrease from the current 122 million to 63 million, half of today’s figure, by 2100. Even Japan, which is called a 'model country for low birthrate' in South Korea, is internally criticized for being grossly insufficient.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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The Population Strategy Council released this report the day before and met with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to deliver it. The council includes 28 experts such as Akio Mimura, former chairman of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and Hiroya Masuda, former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications. Notably, former Minister Masuda chaired the Japan Revitalization Council in 2014, which discussed population issues and announced the concept of 'disappearing municipalities,' referring to local extinction due to population decline.

They first pointed out that the Japanese government's low birthrate measures so far have been episodic and merely symptomatic treatments. The evidence is that although the birthrate briefly rose to 1.45 in 2015, it fell to a record low of 1.26 in 2022. The Population Strategy Council criticized the government for neglecting investigation and analysis of the causes of population decline and for appealing to the public in a manner of 'just have children' without sharing the serious impact of population decline with the people.

The Population Strategy Council then proposed a goal of raising the population to 80 million by 2100. The council is evaluated as having set a realistically achievable target. First, based on population statistics from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, they established birthrate increase scenarios. There are two scenarios: the first is a rapid recovery of the birthrate leading to a population of 91 million by 2100, and the second is a slight increase in the birthrate raising the population to 80 million, higher than the expected 63 million. They set the second, more realistic scenario as the goal, excluding the most optimistic one.

Former Chairman of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry Akio Mimura is delivering the 'Population Vision 2100' report to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. (Photo by NHK)

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Instead, they proposed pursuing two strategies simultaneously: raising the birthrate and maintaining current production levels with a smaller population. These are the 'normalization strategy' to slow the rate of population decline and the 'strengthening strategy' to maintain productivity with fewer people.

The normalization strategy aims to create an environment where young people in any occupation can easily have children. This includes converting non-regular workers to regular employment and establishing social security systems for freeters to secure the future of the youth. It also explicitly states that 'women should be given the highest priority.' The report states, "Childcare burdens in Japan are concentrated on women, and currently, unmarried women consider 'remaining single and working' as the most desirable. For them, having children is a risk." To solve this problem, the report calls for the state to fully support the birth and childcare of all children.

The council cited Sweden as a model case. They emphasized, "Sweden has faced declining birthrates several times but recovered each time by strengthening family policies." In fact, 95% of Sweden’s childcare facilities are state-operated. Parents pay only 3% of the usage fee, making it virtually free. Facilities allow parents to leave their children as early as 6 a.m. or until late after work hours upon prior arrangement. Housing allowances are also provided to solve housing problems for young parents raising children.

The strengthening strategy is a realistic approach to maintaining productivity with a smaller population. Notably, it focuses not on Japanese nationals but on foreigners. It points out the need for a comprehensive strategy that goes beyond simply lowering immigration barriers to enable immigrants to settle and live permanently. The report also includes the need for bold reforms of low-productivity industries and local companies.

Officials from the Population Strategy Meeting held a press conference on the 9th to announce the contents of the 'Population Vision 2100.' (Photo by NHK)

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The council requested the Japanese government to establish a control tower called the 'Population Strategy Promotion Headquarters' to implement these measures. They also urged the creation of bipartisan discussion bodies under the Prime Minister’s direct supervision, including a deliberative council, a national assembly, and the parliament.

Prime Minister Kishida responded to the council’s proposals by saying, "The public and private sectors will cooperate to reform social awareness." Former Minister Masuda appealed for support, stating, "If these proposals are not achieved, Japan’s social security will completely collapse," and "Maintaining regional infrastructure will become difficult, narrowing choices in many areas of society."

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