[The Editors' Verdict] Gallium Is Only the Beginning of the Counterattack

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Gallium, atomic number 31. This rare metal, unfamiliar to the general public, has become the center of the power struggle between the United States and China. China has announced that it will restrict exports of gallium and germanium starting from the 1st of next month.

When Russian chemist Dmitri Mendeleev created the periodic table in 1869, gallium was not yet known to the world. Six years later, French chemist Paul ?mile Lecoq de Boisbaudran succeeded in isolating the element gallium for the first time. Gallium is named after ‘Gallia,’ the old name of Boisbaudran’s homeland, France.

Gallium has a low melting point of 30 degrees Celsius, so it turns into a liquid when placed on the palm of your hand. It is reminiscent of the liquid robot ‘T-1000’ from the movie Terminator. Gallium is rarely found in its natural state. It is mainly produced as a byproduct during the refining of aluminum. China accounts for more than 80% of the global supply.

Most gallium metal is used in semiconductors and displays in the form of compounds such as gallium arsenide (GaAs) and gallium nitride (GaN). Semiconductors made with gallium arsenide have high electron mobility, which reduces power consumption and is advantageous for miniaturization. When gallium is combined with phosphorus, arsenic, nitrogen, and others, it emits various colors of light when current is supplied, which is used to make LEDs.

When China announced its export controls on gallium, the West went into emergency mode. Efforts to secure alternative supply chains are underway immediately. The United States and Europe have relied on China for gallium supply. There have also been foreign reports that the European Union (EU) requested gallium production from an aluminum producer in Greece.

South Korea is no exception. Its dependence on China for gallium reaches 40%. The current stockpile is estimated to last about 40 days. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy stated that the short-term impact of China’s export controls on gallium and germanium is "limited."

However, the problem is that this may be just the beginning. The general analysis is that China’s export restrictions are retaliation for the West?namely the United States, Europe, and Japan?restricting exports of advanced semiconductor equipment to China. Therefore, if the conflict between the U.S. and China intensifies, China’s mineral export controls could expand further. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) analyzed that "China has only fired a warning shot." China chose gallium and germanium, which have relatively feasible alternatives, to give just a taste.

The next targets are likely to be rare earth elements or key minerals for electric vehicle batteries. The impact would be incomparable to that of gallium. According to an analysis by the New York Times (NYT), most of the four key battery minerals?lithium (67%), nickel (63%), cobalt (73%), and graphite (70%)?are refined in China. In particular, graphite, a key raw material for anodes, is mined mostly in China, making it difficult to find alternative production sites.

Of course, China will not easily play the export restriction card on major minerals that could boomerang back on itself. However, we cannot be complacent. If China really takes action and then we devise countermeasures, it will already be too late.

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