"North Korea Aims to Possess Over 170 Nuclear Warheads... Must Prepare for Nuclear War"

A military expert has suggested the need to train nuclear experts with the possibility of North Korea initiating a nuclear war in mind. If North Korea attempts to strike South Korea's key facilities and block U.S. support to South Korea, the estimated target number of nuclear warheads held by North Korea is expected to exceed 170.

On the 22nd, Park Cheol-gyun, head of the Security Strategy Center at the Global Defense Research Forum, stated at a defense policy seminar held at the Army Hall in Yongsan-gu, Seoul, themed "Diagnosis and Future Prospects of the 70th Anniversary of the ROK-U.S. Alliance," that "Considering the nuclear warheads recently displayed by North Korea, delivery means, and nuclear force policy trends, the possibility of nuclear war is a real threat." Park is an expert who previously served as the head of the Ministry of National Defense's Arms Control Verification Team.

Kim Jong-un, Commemorative Photo with ICBM Contributors

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Park projected that North Korea's desired number of nuclear warheads is "more than 170." This estimate is based on the number of nuclear warheads needed to simultaneously strike South Korea's major airports, ports, and military facilities while blocking U.S. support to South Korea. He said, "It will take more than 10 years for North Korea to secure the desired number of nuclear warheads," but he repeatedly emphasized the need to train experts to prepare for the possibility of nuclear war. Specifically, he mentioned North Korea's concrete strike targets within the Korean Peninsula theater, including ▲U.S. aircraft carriers ▲amphibious ports and amphibious airports ▲air force bases in South Korea, and predicted that "North Korea will prioritize using 'tactical nuclear weapons' to neutralize air power and U.S. reinforcement forces, where it is at an absolute disadvantage."

Regarding the agreement between President Yoon Suk-yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden in April to establish the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), Park evaluated it as a meaningful achievement in terms of strengthening extended deterrence execution capability. Park said, "We are no longer a country that unilaterally receives U.S. extended deterrence but can jointly discuss nuclear-related strategic planning with the U.S.," adding, "Training experts for this should also be a task of interest."

He also called for diplomatic efforts. Park expressed concern that "excessive strengthening of deterrence might cause North Korea to lose hope for survival, misinterpret alliance signals, or take reckless actions to escape internal political situations." He explained, "Strengthening extended deterrence execution capability does not necessarily mean the end of dialogue," and added, "To reduce the possibility of failure, comprehensive and political efforts, including confidence-building, are also necessary."

At the seminar, Shin Beom-chul, Vice Minister of National Defense, said in his congratulatory remarks, "The ROK-U.S. alliance itself is our diplomatic and security strategic asset," and added, "We are making great efforts to develop this alliance, specify the contents of extended deterrence, and strengthen independent deterrence against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats."

North Korea's Kim Jong-un [Photo by Yonhap News]

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Earlier, according to the 2023 Yearbook released on the 12th (local time) by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in Sweden, the total number of nuclear warheads held by nine countries including the U.S., China, and Russia was counted at 12,512 as of January this year. This is a slight decrease from 12,710 at the same time last year. However, excluding those that were made long ago and are to be dismantled, the number of actually usable nuclear warheads is analyzed to have increased from 9,490 to 9,576.

Among these, North Korea is estimated to possess 30 nuclear warheads, an increase of 5 from a year ago. The institute stated, "North Korea has around 30 assembled nuclear warheads but is believed to possess fissile material capable of producing an additional 50 to 70 warheads," and evaluated that "Although North Korea has not conducted additional nuclear tests since 2017, it prioritizes nuclear weapons as a core element of its security strategy."

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