'Which Country Has the Largest Population?' Common Knowledge to Change This Month

India is expected to surpass China as the most populous country in the world by the end of this month. The difference in birth rates between China and India has been shown to influence changes in the global population rankings.

According to foreign media including AP and AFP on the 24th (local time), the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) projected that India's population will reach 1,425,775,850 by the end of this month, surpassing China's population.

Last week, the United Nations Population Fund had predicted that India's population would overtake China's by mid-year, but the timing has been moved forward. John Wilmoth, Director of the United Nations Population Division, emphasized that although it is still a projection, the forecast announced on the 24th is based on recent data.

[Photo by Yonhap News]

원본보기 아이콘

However, the exact timing of when India's population will surpass China's cannot be determined. According to AP News, demographers explain that limitations in population data make it impossible to calculate the exact date.

Additionally, the Indian government has not conducted a population census since 2011 and has made no official statements regarding estimates.

John Wilmoth, Director of the United Nations Population Division, analyzed that the factor changing the position of the 'most populous country' is the difference in birth rates between China and India.

According to UN data, the average fertility rate of Chinese women last year was 1.2 children, a decrease of 0.5 from 1.7 in 2017.

The Chinese government announced a policy allowing three children in 2021 and is promoting childbirth support policies such as maternity leave and childcare subsidies. However, young people still hesitate to have children due to the burden of raising them.

Last year, the average fertility rate of Indian women was 2 children, showing a higher level compared to China. However, India's fertility rate is also gradually declining, and AP News reported that population growth is expected to stop around 2064.

Meanwhile, reactions to India's population growth trend are not entirely positive, as there are still areas lacking basic facilities such as electricity, housing, and water supply.

According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), India's unemployment rate reached 8% at the end of last year, marking the highest level.

Professor Brahma Chellaney of the Indian Policy Research Centre stated, "China's demographic crisis is timely for India's growth. However, this is possible only when young people can find sufficient quality jobs."

© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.