[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Halts Provocation... Waiting for US-ROK Summit Outcome?

North Korea is refraining from military provocations on the 25th, the founding day of the anti-Japanese partisan (anti-Japanese guerrilla) 'Joseon People's Revolutionary Army.' Initially, there was speculation that North Korea might provoke on the 25th, coinciding with the scheduled South Korea-US summit, but there has been no significant movement.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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On the 18th, Chairman Kim Jong-un visited the National Space Development Agency and declared the completion of the first military reconnaissance satellite. Ahead of the South Korea-US summit on the 26th, there is speculation that North Korea might press the launch button around this date to maximize the impact of its warning message.

This contrasts with North Korea's launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the East Sea about three hours before President Yoon Suk-yeol departed for Tokyo, Japan, on the 16th of last month for the South Korea-Japan summit. It is also reported that there has been no prior notification to international organizations related to satellite launches, such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

Some are focusing on the unfavorable weather conditions for satellite launches. Weather conditions such as wind speed and direction are critical variables for satellite launches, and the weather on that day is generally cloudy with rain forecasted across all regions in the afternoon. In the northern part of Pyonganbuk-do, where the West Sea Satellite Launching Station is located, and northern Hamgyeong-do, rain or snow may fall, with winds expected to shift from southeast to southwest at 3 to 6 meters per second.

There is also speculation that North Korea may carry out military provocations after observing the results of the South Korea-US summit. On the 26th, the South Korea-US summit at the White House will issue a separate joint statement containing the US's extended deterrence commitment to South Korea. It is known that the statement will include measures to further enhance trust in the US 'nuclear umbrella.'

Extended deterrence is the concept that if South Korea faces a nuclear threat, the US will retaliate with strategic weapons and missile defense (MD) at a level equivalent to an attack on its own mainland. The plan is to specify this commitment at a 'very clear and verifiable' level in a separate document at the summit level. There is also speculation that the joint statement will explicitly state that the US will carry out nuclear retaliation in the event of a North Korean nuclear attack on South Korea. It is reported that discussions are underway to establish existing South Korea-US consultative bodies, such as the deputy minister-level Extended Deterrence Strategy Committee (EDSCG), as permanent consultative bodies to create a continuous consultation system.

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