LDP Wins 4 out of 5 By-Elections in Japan... Kishida Paves Way for Long-Term Rule

In a by-election in Japan to elect five members of the House of Representatives and House of Councillors, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured four seats. With the LDP's de facto victory in this election, which serves as a midterm evaluation of the Kishida Fumio administration, it is expected that the government’s future policy implementation will gain momentum.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

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According to local Japanese media such as Kyodo News and NHK on the 23rd, the LDP won four out of five constituencies where the by-elections were held: the 5th district of Chiba for the House of Representatives, the 1st district of Wakayama, the 2nd and 4th districts of Yamaguchi, and the Oita constituency for the House of Councillors. The LDP had set a goal to secure at least the three seats it previously held, and it increased its seats by one.

The most notable constituencies in this election were Yamaguchi’s 2nd and 4th districts. Yamaguchi’s 4th district is the electoral district of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, who was assassinated during the House of Councillors election campaign in July last year. Former Shimonoseki city councilor Yoshida Shinji of the LDP was elected. Yoshida emphasized before the election that he was the candidate succeeding former Prime Minister Abe, and he won by a landslide with the support of Abe’s wife, Abe Akie.

In Yamaguchi’s 2nd district, former Defense Minister Kishi Nobuo resigned from his seat due to illness, and his eldest son, Kishi Nobuchiyo, a candidate from the LDP and nephew of former Prime Minister Abe, was elected. Nobuchiyo, 31 years old this year, worked as a Fuji TV reporter before preparing for his political debut while serving as his father’s secretary when his father was Defense Minister. He has been criticized for “political inheritance” as he effectively inherited his father’s electoral district.

The LDP was defeated only in Wakayama’s 1st district, where an explosive device attack targeting Prime Minister Kishida occurred, losing to the opposition party.

This election serves as a midterm evaluation of the Kishida administration, which was launched in October 2021. With the LDP’s final victory, the Kishida Cabinet is expected to lay the foundation for long-term governance. Local media predicted that “the election outcome will influence the Kishida Cabinet’s future administration,” and if Prime Minister Kishida judges that the LDP won this election, he may dissolve the House of Representatives early and hold a general election.

Inside and outside Japanese politics, there is an analysis that the explosive device attack targeting Prime Minister Kishida in Wakayama Prefecture on the 15th led to the consolidation of his support base.

Prime Minister Kishida’s major policies, such as measures to address the low birthrate and tax increases to strengthen defense capabilities, are also expected to gain momentum. Key issues in this election included high inflation, low birthrate countermeasures, and increased defense spending.

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