Is It Different This Time?... Doubled Increase in Swing Voters, Will the 'Third Zone New Party' Gain Momentum?

With the general election for the National Assembly just one year away, the formation of a 'third zone new party' has been officially announced. Amid a rapid increase in the so-called 'non-affiliated voters' who feel repulsed by extreme two-party politics, attention is focused on whether a new political force capable of capturing their support will emerge. Electoral system reform that can secure a meaningful number of seats in next year's general election, finding suitable candidates, and funding for party formation are considered major hurdles in the process of establishing the new party.

Kim Jong-in, former emergency committee chairman of the People Power Party, said on the 19th on CBS Radio's 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show' that "there is a possibility of a new political force emerging," based on the awakening of the people. Kim, along with former Democratic Party lawmaker Geum Tae-seop, held a preparatory meeting for the 'Reflection and Exploration Forum for a Different Future' at the National Assembly the day before, signaling the launch of the third zone new party. At this meeting, former lawmaker Geum publicly stated his intention to push for the 'new party formation' targeting next year's general election, saying, "If a party that can secure about 30 seats mainly in the metropolitan area appears, it could become a driving force to change Korean politics from the ground up."

Former People Power Party Emergency Response Committee Chairman Kim Jong-in is conversing with former Democratic Party lawmaker Geum Tae-seop at the "Reflection and Exploration Forum for a Different Future" held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul on the 18th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

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Former chairman Kim also decided to support the new party formation. He said, "Since former lawmaker Geum is doing that (forming the third zone new party), I think there will be parts where I can help with issue selection and various policy situations going forward."

Political realignments ahead of major elections such as general and presidential elections have been a regular occurrence in the political world. The closest examples are the 'New Wave' party founded by Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon and the 'People's Party' created by People Power Party lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo. However, all these parties were absorbed into the Democratic Party and People Power Party, leading to the assessment that the third zone new party efforts ended in failure.

However, recently, as the two major parties face unprecedented risks, the possibility of a new alternative force gaining support has been raised. The People Power Party continues to suffer from internal conflicts starting with the disciplinary action against former leader Lee Jun-seok, and its approval ratings have plummeted due to the 'Jeon Gwang-hoon risk' and a series of controversies involving top committee members. The Democratic Party is also in trouble due to the judicial risks surrounding party leader Lee Jae-myung and the cash envelope scandal at the party convention. The disappointment with the two major parties is growing to the extent that Democratic Party lawmaker Lee Sang-min said at the reflection and exploration discussion the day before, "In the Democratic Party, President Yoon Seok-youl and the People Power Party are beacons of hope. In the People Power Party, Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party are lights of hope."

Because of this, the proportion of non-affiliated voters has soared in recent opinion polls. According to the April second-week poll by Gallup Korea released on the 14th (for detailed information, refer to the National Election Commission website), the proportion of non-affiliated voters was 29%. During the same period, party approval ratings were 36% for the Democratic Party and 31% for the People Power Party. Compared to the same poll in the second week of April last year, right after the presidential election, when the People Power Party had 40%, the Democratic Party 39%, and non-affiliated voters 15%, the non-affiliated voter base has doubled in one year.

However, electoral system reform is essential for the formation of a third zone new party. Introducing medium or large multi-member constituencies or increasing proportional representation would make it relatively easier for small parties to enter the legislature. However, the two major parties, People Power Party and Democratic Party, are highly likely to oppose such electoral reforms, which is seen as an obstacle. Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University's Department of Political Science and Diplomacy said, "If the number of lawmakers increases or proportional representation is expanded, the chances of a new party entering the National Assembly would be higher, but that is unlikely to happen," adding, "Although the purpose of proportional representation is good, in our country, the lists are not made to fulfill that purpose, so there are doubts about it." Political commentator Park Sang-byeong also analyzed, "If the number of National Assembly seats and proportional representatives increases, the third party has a higher chance of success, so the People Power Party will oppose it," and "The reason the People Power Party is currently proposing to reduce the number of seats is because of that."

The shortage of suitable candidates is also cited as a factor hindering the formation of the new party. Commentator Park said, "The atmosphere is good for forming a third party now, but people are still the key, and who raises the flag is important," explaining, "Someone who can shake Korean politics once and make people feel that 'Korean politics will improve' needs to emerge, but that is not easy." A People Power Party lawmaker also said, "If a third zone is created, there will be public expectations," but added, "If the identity is not clear, there must be one killer content."

Funding for the new party formation is also considered a significant challenge. According to the current Political Parties Act, to establish a party, one must have a central party office in Seoul and at least five city or provincial party branches, each with more than 1,000 members. Additionally, setting up offices for the city or provincial branches is expected to impose a heavy organizational and financial burden.

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