Rising Nuclear Risks in Northeast Asia... WP Warns of Possible US-China Nuclear War

Published 19 Apr.2023 06:00(KST)

North Korea's 7th Nuclear Test Imminent, Domestic Calls for Independent Nuclear Armament

The risk of nuclear war surrounding Northeast Asia is increasing. With North Korea's 7th nuclear test imminent, the Washington Post (WP) has suggested the possibility of a nuclear war between the United States and China. As North Korea's nuclear provocations escalate, voices calling for 'independent nuclear possession' are growing louder domestically. Ahead of the South Korea-US summit, a forum on the 'independent nuclear possession theory' was held in the National Assembly.

On the 17th (local time), WP warned in a column titled "US-China Competition, the Existential Risk is Nuclear War" that if the US and China directly clash over the Taiwan issue, it could escalate into an actual nuclear war. WP stated, "While the US-China conflict in the new Cold War situation is real, neither hawkish politicians nor the US public are paying sufficient attention to the possibility of nuclear war," adding, "the worst-case scenario assumed in conflicts with China is also overly naive."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The 'scenario' mentioned by WP refers to the recent US-China 'war game' conclusions conducted by Republican House members, where China occupies Taiwan and the US and Taiwan suffer significant casualties. However, the conflict does not escalate to nuclear war. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) war game also recommended strategies focusing more on conventional weapons than nuclear arms.

However, the column warns that these war game scenarios underestimate the risk of nuclear war, stating, "In the event of a Taiwan war, the US would find it difficult to win by attacking only Chinese warships and aircraft at sea and in the air, so it would have no choice but to attack Chinese military bases." This would lead China to conduct airstrikes on US bases in Japan, South Korea, and the western US mainland, and if the mainland is attacked, the US president would decide on full-scale war including strikes on China.

This WP nuclear war forecast is particularly notable as it came right after the US and China engaged in a tense standoff over the Taiwan Strait. China conducted encirclement drills around Taiwan from the 8th to the 10th in response to the meeting between Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, while the US held counter destroyer drills in the South China Sea.

Another factor increasing the nuclear war risk in Northeast Asia is North Korea. On the 13th, North Korea test-fired a ballistic missile claimed to be a 'solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)' near Pyongyang, and it is closely aligning with Chinese President Xi Jinping through reciprocal visits. Domestically, calls for independent nuclear possession as a response are gaining strength. Especially conservative presidential candidates are vocally advocating for pursuing nuclear possession and nuclear sharing.

On the 18th, Ahn Cheol-soo, a member of the People Power Party, stated on social media (SNS), "To protect the Republic of Korea from the North Korean nuclear threat, we must first pursue a creative 'ROK-US nuclear sharing,' the most effective form of extended deterrence," adding, "furthermore, by revising the nuclear cooperation agreement, we should obtain the authority to reprocess nuclear fuel like Japan, secure nuclear-powered submarines like Australia to counter North Korea's SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles), and realize intelligence sharing at the level of the 'Five Eyes.'"

On the 17th, a forum titled "Is Independent Nuclear Possession Necessary for the Republic of Korea?" was held in the National Assembly, hosted by People Power Party member Ryu Seong-gyeol.

Jeong Seong-jang, head of the Unification Strategy Research Office at the Sejong Institute and a leading academic advocate of 'nuclear self-reliance,' said, "If South Korea continues to respond to North Korea's nuclear threat only with conventional weapons, it will be difficult to reduce troop numbers, making it inevitable to extend the military service period for young people," adding, "The current generation in Korea needs to make a timely decision to pursue independent nuclear possession for the safety and happiness of future generations." Kim Ki-hyun, leader of the People Power Party, also attended the forum and argued, "We need to discuss not only the nuclear umbrella but also the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons and nuclear sharing."