[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea Cuts Communication... Will It Provocate This Week?

North Korea has not responded to the regular calls on the inter-Korean joint liaison office and military communication lines for five consecutive days. The government strongly condemned North Korea's unilateral and irresponsible attitude. There are prospects that this could lead to additional provocations such as the launch of a military reconnaissance satellite ahead of the upcoming Day of the Sun on the 15th, which is the birthday of President Kim Il-sung.

On the morning of the day at 9 a.m., North Korea did not respond to South Korea's initiation calls on the inter-Korean joint liaison office and the military communication lines in the East and West Sea areas. The two Koreas regularly conduct opening calls at 9 a.m. and closing calls at 5 p.m. on weekdays through the joint liaison office channel. The military authorities also conduct opening calls at 9 a.m. and closing calls at 4 p.m. daily via the military communication lines.

As North Korea has not responded to the regular communications for five days, there is growing analysis that it is deliberately refusing communication in response to recent South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises and the United Nations' North Korea human rights report. Because of this, there is a possibility that North Korea may engage in military provocations.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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In fact, the Korean Central News Agency reported that North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un emphasized the need to "expand war deterrence more practically and offensively and operate it effectively." Analysts interpret the war deterrence mentioned by Chairman Kim as referring to nuclear forces. Notably, the meeting photo distributed by the Korean Central News Agency shows Chairman Kim pointing with his finger to some areas on the west and south of the map of the Republic of Korea, drawing attention. The location on the map is presumed to be around Camp Humphreys, a U.S. military base in South Korea.

There is an expectation of North Korean provocations as early as this week. The 15th is the Day of the Sun, the birthday of President Kim Il-sung, which North Korea regards as the "greatest national holiday." North Korea has carried out provocations around the Day of the Sun every year. Last year, it fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea the day after the Day of the Sun.

Especially since North Korea has declared it will "launch a reconnaissance satellite in April," there is a possibility that it may use the satellite launch as a pretext to carry out an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) provocation. However, weather is a variable. North Korean vessels may deliberately cross the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea to induce the South Korean government to declare the nullification of the September 19 agreement first. President Yoon Suk-yeol instructed in January, right after North Korean drones intruded into South Korean airspace, to "consider suspending the effectiveness of the September 19 agreement if North Korea invades our territory."

In August 2021, North Korea also cut off the military communication lines and the inter-Korean joint liaison office channels and staged military demonstrations, using the second half of the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises as a pretext. In October of the same year, it fired one submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) east of Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province, into the East Sea. This was the first time North Korea launched an underwater missile using an actual submarine. Jeong Seong-jang, head of the Unification Strategy Research Office at the Sejong Institute, analyzed, "The deliberate exposure of operational possibilities with U.S. military bases in mind suggests a possibility of missile provocations simulating strikes on the Seoul metropolitan area in the future. Regarding the reconnaissance satellite launch announced for April, since no prior signs have been detected by South Korea-U.S. surveillance assets, it is expected to be executed around late this month after the Day of the Sun."

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