Tensions Rise in the Taiwan Strait... Will the Sparks Fly to Han Too?

As China continues its 'Taiwan encirclement' drills for the third consecutive day since the 8th, the United States is also conducting destroyer exercises in the South China Sea as a countermeasure, escalating tensions around the Taiwan Strait. In the new Cold War framework between the U.S. and China, Taiwan is becoming the 'frontline.' South Korea, which is just a stone's throw away from Taiwan, is also not in a position to feel secure. Especially, there are analyses suggesting that if North Korea's seventh nuclear test coincides with the U.S.-China confrontation, it could pose a new crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

On the 10th, Tae Young-ho, a former North Korean diplomat and senior member of the People Power Party, stated at the National Assembly's highest council meeting, "During President Yoon Seok-yeol's visit to the U.S., it is necessary to comprehensively review whether the U.S. has operational plans to prepare for two wars in Northeast Asia?on the Korean Peninsula and in Taiwan?and the issue of revising the U.S.-South Korea nuclear agreement."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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Tae's remarks imply the possibility of simultaneous wars on the Korean Peninsula and in Taiwan. If a war breaks out in Taiwan, it is highly likely that U.S. forces stationed in South Korea will be deployed, and security experts predict that North Korea may take advantage of the security vacuum on the Korean Peninsula to carry out military provocations.

Jang Young-hee, a research professor at Sungkyunkwan University's Sungkyun China Research Institute, said in a webinar hosted by Gyeongnam National University's Far East Institute last January, "If an emergency occurs in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. will not only move its military forces in the Indo-Pacific region closer to Taiwan to defend it but also use U.S. bases in South Korea as launch bases. North Korea might misjudge that the U.S. security commitment to South Korea will weaken and carry out military provocations."

In particular, with North Korea preparing for its seventh nuclear test, the possibility of a nuclear provocation is also anticipated. Tae said, "There is still a possibility that North Korea will conduct its seventh nuclear test on Saturday, April 15, to mark Kim Il-sung's birthday (Day of the Sun)." He expressed concern, saying, "If North Korea proceeds with the seventh nuclear test, it seems closely related to China's current large-scale encirclement military operations in the Taiwan Strait." North Korea has not responded to regular military communication line calls for four consecutive days since the 7th, increasing anxiety.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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The current situation around Taiwan is truly 'on the brink of explosion.' China has been continuing its 'Taiwan encirclement' drills for three days since the 8th, triggered by the meeting between Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen and U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army announced that the aircraft carrier Shandong participated in the drills and released footage of carrier-based aircraft taking off from the Shandong. In response, the U.S. is conducting Aegis destroyer exercises in the South China Sea.

However, the confrontation between the two sides may not necessarily lead to war. Kim Han-kwon, a professor at the Asia-Pacific Research Department of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, explained in a February report titled "U.S.-China Strategic Competition and the Current Status and Prospects of the Taiwan Strait," "Although the U.S. and China maintain strong criticism of each other and military standoffs over the Taiwan Strait, the scenario of not escalating into physical conflict is likely to continue until the end of 2027," adding, "China's military power is still insufficient, and the domestic and international economic situation is unfavorable."

Attention is also focused on whether there will be advanced remarks regarding the Taiwan situation at the upcoming South Korea-U.S. summit at the end of this month and the South Korea-U.S.-Japan summit held during the G7 summit in Hiroshima next month. In the trilateral joint statement announced by the South Korea-U.S.-Japan leaders in Phnom Penh last November, "maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait" was mentioned.

However, there are considerable concerns that being overly biased toward the U.S. stance could lead to friction with China. Park Ji-won, former director of the National Intelligence Service, appeared on KBS radio shortly after the Phnom Penh South Korea-U.S.-Japan summit and said, "President Yoon is too biased toward the U.S. during the South Korea-U.S. and South Korea-U.S.-Japan summits. Mentioning the Taiwan issue and the Indo-Pacific issue is likely to upset China now," adding, "Our Korean Peninsula is geopolitically like a ditch. We need to feed on both the U.S. and China's grass."

In Europe, voices are also emerging that simply following the U.S. stance on the Taiwan issue is problematic. French President Emmanuel Macron, after his recent visit to China, emphasized the importance of 'strategic autonomy' amid the U.S.-China confrontation in interviews with major media, stating, "Europe must answer the question, 'Is it in our interest to exacerbate the crisis surrounding Taiwan?' The answer is 'No.'"

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