Will Indictment Be a Boon... Trump to Appear in Court on the 4th, Speech Scheduled (Comprehensive)

Former President Donald Trump, who has been indicted on so-called 'hush money' allegations related to sexual relations, will appear in a Manhattan court in New York on the 4th (local time). Amid backlash from Republican supporters calling it a "political investigation" and a flood of political donations, there is speculation that Trump, a former reality show star, will use this situation as an opportunity to maximize the effect of rallying his support base. Trump is also expected to return to Florida immediately afterward to deliver a public speech.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

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According to CNN and other U.S. media on the 2nd, former President Trump will appear at the New York District Court on the 4th for an arraignment procedure and then deliver a speech at 8:15 p.m. the same day at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. At this event, Trump is expected to deny the charges against him, label the indictment as "political persecution" and a "witch hunt," and call on his supporters to unite. Major foreign media, citing sources, reported that Trump is likely to focus on "the politicization of the judicial system to manipulate the election."

Currently, legal experts speculate that the court may issue an order prohibiting Trump from making certain statements before the arraignment. However, it is also highly likely that Trump will use even such court decisions as further evidence of political persecution. NBC News commented, "Even if there are certain words he cannot say, he will find a way to use this politically," adding, "Considering the current situation where Trump claims that prosecutors and Democrats are restricting his political activities, it is a difficult issue for a judge to issue a gag order on a leading presidential candidate."

Before the speech, the arraignment procedure will take place at the New York court starting around 2:15 p.m., during which the judge will inform Trump of the charges and confirm whether he admits or denies the allegations. If he denies the charges, the trial process will begin. Trump is expected to fly from Florida to New York on the 3rd for this purpose. After spending a night at Trump Tower, he will head to the court on the afternoon of the 4th.

Although the indictment has not yet been made public, it is understood to involve charges related to hush money paid to former adult film actress Stormy Daniels. Considering that prosecutors have focused on investigating violations of federal election finance laws, it is also speculated that the indictment includes allegations related to illegal campaign contributions. Local media such as ABC News and the Associated Press, citing sources, reported that the indictment contains about 20 to 30 charges, including at least one felony.

Trump's attorney, Joe Tacopina, stated on the day, "We need to see the charges," but asserted innocence, saying, "They do not apply to any law, so we will request dismissal." He also added, "We hope the (court and prosecutors) process will be painless and classy." Trump will not be handcuffed during court transfers as a courtesy to a former president. Like other defendants, he will have a mugshot taken at the Manhattan District Attorney's office before court transfer, but this will not be made public under New York state law.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

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Former President Trump appears to be turning this indictment into an opportunity for political counterattack. Political media outlet Politico analyzed, "Trump's team may prolong the trial until the 2024 presidential election to rally Republican supporters." The announcement of the public speech on the day of the court appearance is also seen as part of this strategy. It is reported that such advice has been conveyed to Trump within the party.

Within the Republican base, a rallying effect in response to the indictment decision has already been confirmed. On the day the grand jury decided to indict on the 30th of last month alone, a whopping $4 million (about 5.2 billion KRW) in donations was raised, and the total amount raised by that day exceeded $5 million. The campaign stated that 25% of the first-day donations came from first-time donors with no previous contribution history.

Trump's approval rating within the party is also rebounding. Political media outlet The Hill reported that in a head-to-head poll, Trump's support rate was 57%, leading Governor DeSantis by a staggering 26 percentage points. In a Yahoo-YouGov poll, Trump's support was 52%, far surpassing Governor DeSantis (21%) and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (5%).

CNN reported, "As the indictment approached last month, Trump's support within the party continued to rise, and most Republican supporters currently believe that the investigations against Trump are politically motivated. Moreover, the majority of supporters are not very concerned about Trump's election," explaining that this is why he still leads as the Republican presidential candidate despite the indictment.

On the other hand, there is also analysis that this indictment could be the beginning of ongoing 'judicial risks' that may eventually hamper Trump. He is already under investigation for unauthorized removal of White House classified documents, incitement of the January 6 Capitol riot in 2021, and interference in Georgia's election. Concerns about these three cases are reportedly higher within Trump's camp and legal team. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) predicted, "Growing judicial risks could cause moderates and independents to turn away." Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, a Republican, stated on ABC News that Trump should stop campaigning, responding "Yes" when asked if Trump should halt his presidential campaign.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

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As a former president is criminally indicted for the first time in history, political polarization along party lines is evident in the U.S. A poll conducted immediately after the indictment showed that 4 to 5 out of 10 Americans support the indictment, but there was a clear divide between Democrats and Republicans.

According to a poll released by ABC News and Ipsos on the same day, 45% of respondents said Trump should be indicted. Thirty-two percent said he should not be indicted, and 23% were unsure. Notably, 88% of Democratic supporters said he should be indicted, while 65% of Republican supporters said he should not, showing a clear partisan divide. Only 16% of Republican supporters said Trump should be indicted.

Additionally, 47% of all respondents said the case was politically motivated, while 32% disagreed. Regardless of their stance on Trump's indictment, most Republican supporters (79%) said the case is a political investigation. Forty-eight percent of independents agreed with this view. In contrast, 64% of Democratic supporters said it was not a political investigation.

This poll was conducted over two days starting on the 31st of last month, the day after the New York grand jury decided to indict Trump, surveying 593 adults nationwide in the U.S.

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