Divided US over Trump Indictment... Republican Supporters Also Show 'Rally Effect'

As former President Donald Trump faces charges related to the so-called 'hush money scandal' involving sexual relations, political divisions along partisan lines are becoming evident across the United States. In a poll conducted immediately after the indictment, 4 to 5 out of 10 Americans supported the indictment, but a detailed look reveals a clear divide between Democratic and Republican supporters. The surge in support for Trump among Republicans right after the indictment also reflects this context. This unprecedented indictment of a former president is expected to become a significant factor in the 2024 presidential election.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

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According to a poll released on the 2nd (local time) by ABC News and Ipsos, 45% of respondents said former President Trump should be indicted. Thirty-two percent said he should not be indicted, and 23% were unsure. This poll was conducted over two days starting from the day after the New York grand jury decided to indict Trump, surveying 593 adults nationwide. Trump is scheduled to appear in a Manhattan court on the afternoon of the 4th to be formally notified of charges related to allegedly paying hush money to former adult film actress Stormy Daniels to cover up a sexual scandal. This is the first time a former U.S. president has been indicted.

Notably, in this poll, 88% of Democratic supporters said Trump should be indicted, while 65% of Republican supporters said he should not, highlighting a stark partisan divide. Only 16% of Republican supporters agreed that Trump should be indicted. Among independents, 2 out of 5 supported the indictment, 32% opposed it, and 27% were unsure.

Fifty percent of respondents said the hush money allegations against Trump are 'serious.' However, 36% said they are not very serious or not serious at all, and 14% were unsure. Breaking this down by political affiliation, nearly 9 out of 10 Democrats said the allegations are very serious (49%) or somewhat serious (38%), while 6 out of 10 Republicans said they are not very serious (19%) or not serious at all (41%).

Additionally, 47% of all respondents said the case is politically motivated, while 32% disagreed. Regardless of their stance on the indictment, most Republicans (79%) said the case is a political investigation. Forty-eight percent of independents agreed with this view. On the other hand, 64% of Democrats said it is not a political investigation, though this was not an overwhelming majority, according to ABC. Ahead of the 2024 election, potential Republican challengers such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence have criticized the indictment as "purely politically motivated" and "aggressive."

Furthermore, 43% of respondents said Trump should stop campaigning due to the indictment, while 35% said it should not affect his re-election bid. Additionally, 51% said Trump should be indicted for attempting to overturn the 2020 election results. By political affiliation, this was supported by 90% of Republicans, 49% of independents, and 20% of Democrats.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

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Within the Republican base, a rallying effect in response to the indictment decision is already evident. The Trump campaign claimed, "This witch hunt will trigger a massive backlash." On the day of the indictment alone, $4 million (approximately 5.2 billion KRW) in donations were raised. The campaign confirmed that 25% of these donors were first-time contributors with no prior donation history. As of that day, total donations had surpassed $5 million.

Trump's support within the party is also rebounding. Political media outlet The Hill reported that in a head-to-head poll, Trump's support stood at 57%, leading Governor DeSantis by a substantial 26 percentage points. In a Yahoo-YouGov poll, Trump's support was 52%, far ahead of DeSantis at 21% and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley at 5%. CNN reported, "As the indictment loomed last month, Trump's support within the party continued to rise, and most Republican supporters believe the investigations against him are politically motivated. The majority of supporters are not overly concerned about Trump's election prospects," explaining why he remains the leading Republican presidential candidate despite the indictment.

However, some analysts warn that this indictment could mark the beginning of a series of 'judicial risks' that might eventually lead to defections among moderate voters. ABC News, citing sources, reported that Trump faces over 20 charges, including felonies, and that details will be revealed when he appears in court on the 4th. These specifics could influence the votes of moderates and independents. Moreover, Trump is already under investigation for unauthorized removal of White House classified documents, inciting the January 6 Capitol riot, and interfering in Georgia's election. The hush money scandal is considered less severe compared to these cases. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) predicted that judicial risks could cause moderates and independents to turn away.

Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, a Republican, announced his presidential bid on ABC News and said Trump should stop campaigning, but added, "We know he won't." Earlier, political media outlet Politico reported that Trump's team might prolong the trial until the 2024 election to capitalize on rallying Republican supporters. Trump plans to deliver a speech to supporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida on the night of the 4th, after his court appearance.

Meanwhile, tension is mounting in Manhattan ahead of Trump's court appearance. Bloomberg News reported that major roads near the New York courthouse and other key Manhattan areas may be closed in preparation. New York City and the NYPD have also prepared emergency plans to handle potential protests by supporters.

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