Turkey Death Toll Surpasses Iran Earthquake... UN Warns It Could Double

[Asia Economy Reporter Haeyoung Kwon] The death toll from the massive earthquake that struck T?rkiye (Turkey) and Syria on the 6th (local time) has surpassed 33,000. As the earthquake enters its one-week mark, far beyond the 'golden time' for rescuing survivors, the number of fatalities has increased exponentially, surpassing the scale of the 2003 Iran earthquake disaster.

According to the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) of T?rkiye on the 12th (local time), the death toll in T?rkiye was additionally counted at 29,605. In neighboring Syria, at least 3,574 people have died and 5,276 have been injured. The total death toll combining both countries reached 33,179, exceeding the 31,000 deaths caused by the 2003 Iran earthquake.

This T?rkiye-Syria earthquake has been recorded as the sixth deadliest natural disaster of the 21st century. The World Health Organization (WHO) held a virtual press conference in Damascus, the capital of Syria, on the same day and provisionally estimated that the actual death toll in Syria could reach 9,300.

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There are also pessimistic forecasts. The United Nations predicted that the death toll could more than double from the current figure. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) released a report on the same day, raising the probability that the combined death toll in the two countries will exceed 100,000 by 2 percentage points to 26%. Initially, right after the earthquake, the probability was 0%, but it has steadily increased to 10%, 14%, 24%, and now 26%.

USGS presented three scenarios regarding future prospects. First, there is a scenario where no more aftershocks of magnitude 7.0 or higher occur, but additional earthquakes in the magnitude 5.0 to 6.0 range continue, with the frequency of aftershocks decreasing. The probability of this scenario is estimated at 90%. The probability of aftershocks exceeding magnitude 7.0 but weaker than the mainshock of magnitude 7.8 is 10%. Lastly, the worst-case scenario, where an earthquake of magnitude 7.8 or higher occurs, is estimated to have a probability of around 1%. If this scenario materializes, additional damage could occur not only in the affected areas but also in neighboring regions.

USGS stated, "If a large aftershock occurs, it could cause additional damage to structures that are already weakened or poorly constructed," and added, "Although the frequency of aftershocks may decrease, they can continue for several months or more."

Meanwhile, miraculous rescue news has been reported, far exceeding the 72-hour golden time for survivors. In Gaziantep, southeastern T?rkiye, the initial epicenter of the earthquake, a 17-year-old girl was rescued from the rubble after 159 hours and miraculously survived. In Adıyaman, southern T?rkiye, two sisters were rescued after 153 hours. Additionally, a 35-year-old Turkish man was rescued after 149 hours.

Survivors are also suffering from cold, hunger, and the risk of infectious diseases. Bodies trapped in the rubble can contaminate drinking water, and evacuation camps lack proper toilets, raising hygiene concerns. Moreover, looting continues mainly in severely affected areas, and rescue teams from Austria, Germany, and Israel have suspended or withdrawn their relief activities due to safety issues.

The situation in Syria, which is under international sanctions, is even more dire. Many countries do not provide direct aid, and relief efforts in the rebel-held areas of northwestern Syria are still facing difficulties. The United Nations stated that the delivery of relief supplies from government-controlled areas to rebel-held regions is delayed due to the lack of approval from Syrian rebel groups.

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