Increase in Cases Rekindled During Holiday... Infection Reproduction Number Rises After 4 Weeks

by Kim Youngwon

Published 17 Aug.2022 10:54(KST)

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] The infection reproduction number, an indicator that determines the spread of COVID-19, has rebounded after four weeks, and the number of new confirmed cases has exceeded 180,000 for the first time since the resurgence, accelerating the outbreak.

On the 17th, when the number of tests, which had decreased due to the weekend and the Liberation Day holiday, recovered, the number of new confirmed cases was recorded at 180,803. This is the highest number in 126 days since April 13 (195,387 cases). The number of tests on this day was 281,768, about 2.5 times the 112,860 tests as of midnight on the 16th, recovering to the weekday testing level.

The increase in the number of confirmed cases has grown since last week. The infection reproduction number for the second week of this month (August 7?13) was 1.18, an increase of 0.04 from the previous week (1.14). After reaching a peak of 1.58 in the second week of last month during this resurgence, it had decreased to 1.54, 1.29, and 1.14, but increased again after four weeks. The growth rate of confirmed cases also rose from 1.2 in the first week of this month to 1.3 in the second week. The infection reproduction number indicates how many people one patient infects around them; a value above 1 means the outbreak is spreading.

On this day, the number of critically ill patients hospitalized was 469, a decrease of 94 from the previous day, but the weekly number of critically ill patients and deaths increased. The number of deaths in the second week of August was 330, exceeding 300 for the first time since the fifth week of June when the resurgence began. This is an increase of more than 100 deaths within a week after the previous week's 209 deaths. The average daily number of critically ill patients last week also exceeded 400 for the first time since the sixth resurgence, a 38.9% increase compared to the previous week (324 patients).

The health authorities expect the peak of the resurgence to be within 200,000 cases. However, according to predictions from eight research teams announced by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency the day before, forecasts vary widely?from a maximum of 332,000 cases in four weeks to a decrease after mid-month with 135,000 cases. The research teams forecast that the number of critically ill patients in care will reach a maximum of 800 to 900 in early next month, and daily deaths will be around 100 to 140.

The authorities explained that various factors contribute to the diverse predicted peaks. Lee Sang-won, head of the Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Team at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said, "It depends on how frequently people come into contact with each other and how much immunity from vaccines and natural infections has waned. Seasonal factors, such as people staying indoors for longer periods, are also expected to influence the outbreak forecast."

Baek Kyung-ran, commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, said, "Although the infection reproduction number slightly increased compared to last week, the overall outbreak trend has not changed significantly yet. Considering factors such as holiday travel volume and recent adverse weather conditions, there is a high possibility of fluctuations, so continuous monitoring is necessary."