"Exports Increase 7-8% in Q3 This Year... Export Growth Slows Amid Global Economic Downturn"

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[Asia Economy Sejong=Reporter Kwon Haeyoung] It is predicted that export growth will slow down further as exports in the third quarter of this year increased by only 7-8%.

On the 31st, the Korea Eximbank Overseas Economic Research Institute forecasted in its 'Evaluation of 2nd Quarter 2022 Export Performance and 3rd Quarter Outlook' that exports in the third quarter will reach $177.5 billion.

According to the Eximbank, the export leading index for the third quarter was 138.8, up 11.5 points compared to the same period last year and 3.5 points compared to the previous quarter. The export leading index is an index created to predict the degree of export increase or decrease by combining variables that affect exports such as the economy of major export destination countries, import volume for export, order status by industry, and exchange rates. Among the components of the export leading index, import volume for export continues to rise due to inflation, but the economic growth rate of export destination countries and new manufacturing orders have somewhat contracted, according to the Eximbank.

The institute stated, "The export leading index has risen for seven consecutive quarters year-on-year and for eight consecutive quarters quarter-on-quarter, so the export growth trend will be maintained," but added, "As the year-on-year increase narrows, the export growth rate is expected to moderate."

An Eximbank official said, "Although export prices are rising, the export growth rate is expected to decline compared to the previous quarter due to the economic slowdown in major countries," and added, "If inflation (price increases) further dampens consumer sentiment and the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates more aggressively, accelerating the economic slowdown, the export growth rate may fall below the forecast."

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