Russia Threatens to Cut Gas Supply to Poland and Bulgaria... Resumes Gas Weaponization

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[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As the Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom announced it would cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, the energy security of European countries heavily dependent on Russian natural gas imports is under threat.

According to Bloomberg on the 27th (local time), Polish gas company PGNiG stated in a press release, "Gazprom has notified us that it will stop gas supplies to Poland starting from the 27th." Poland has been importing natural gas from Russia through the Yamal-Europe pipeline and relies on Russia for more than 40% of its total gas demand.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, after a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the same day, said at a press conference, "We have been threatened with a gas supply cut from Gazprom," emphasizing, "Poland's gas storage is 76% full, and Poland has been preparing to diversify its gas supply sources."

Along with Poland, Bulgaria has also reportedly received a notice of gas supply suspension from Russia. The Bulgarian Ministry of Economy issued a statement on the same day announcing, "The state-owned gas company Bulgargaz has been notified by Gazprom that gas supplies will be cut off starting from the 27th." The Ministry protested, saying, "Bulgaria has fulfilled its obligations under the current contract and has paid on time according to the contract terms." Bulgaria depends on Russia for over 90% of its total gas imports, raising concerns about an energy crisis if gas supplies are cut off.

Russia has not explained the reasons for the supply suspension to the two countries, but it is presumed that the cut-off is due to their opposition to Russia's earlier demand for gas payments in rubles. Previously, Russia demanded that European countries pay all gas fees in rubles or create separate foreign currency payment accounts at Gazprombank, setting a deadline of the 22nd of this month for preparation.

Experts analyze that as the April gas payment date approaches, Russia announced the gas supply cut to Poland and Bulgaria first to pressure European countries refusing to comply with the ruble payment measure. Kazakh Yafimava, a senior researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) in the UK, told Bloomberg, "Buyers who immediately reject the new payment procedure face a very high risk of supply interruption," adding, "It is especially critical whether gas supplies to Germany, which neighbors Poland, will also be cut."

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