French President Macron Faces Thorny Path Despite Re-election... Emergency Alert for June General Election Amid Division

French President Emmanuel Macron [Photo by EPA]

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[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] "There is no 'honeymoon' for re-elected President Emmanuel Macron."

On the 24th (local time), although President Macron secured victory over Marine Le Pen, the National Rally (RN) candidate, in the runoff of the French presidential election, the path for his second-term government is expected to be thorny. Facing the severe division within French society in an election held under the same structure as five years ago, President Macron has accepted the challenge of unity ahead of the June parliamentary elections.

President Macron seemed to acknowledge this situation as he declared victory, saying, "I know that you voted for me not because you support my ideas, but to block the far-right ideology." He understood that voters came to the polls not to support him, but to prevent Le Pen from winning. In fact, more than 13 million voters across France supported Le Pen, increasing the number of far-right supporters by about 3 million compared to 2017. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that President Macron’s second term will face more difficulties than his first five years.

The first challenge President Macron faces is the upcoming parliamentary elections in June. If the ruling party, La R?publique En Marche! (LREM), fails to secure control of the National Assembly, President Macron will have to cooperate with opposition parties to implement his pledges. Given that Macron’s approval rating has significantly dropped compared to five years ago, and that LREM received the worst results in last year’s local elections?failing to win the presidency of any of France’s top administrative units, the r?gions (metropolitan provinces)?foreign media predict that securing control of the National Assembly is virtually impossible.

As a result, although President Macron won the presidential election, there is a scenario where he may appoint the leader of the opposition party holding the majority as prime minister, beginning an uneasy cohabitation. While the president is not obligated to appoint the leader of the largest opposition party as prime minister even if the National Assembly is divided, it is highly likely he will make such a choice for governance.

Jean-Luc M?lenchon, the far-left candidate from La France Insoumise (LFI), who placed third in the first round of voting, has already called for left-wing unity during the runoff campaign period, stating that whoever becomes the next president, he wants the prime minister position. Although he did not support President Macron, he told his supporters that Le Pen’s election must be prevented. Since many of Macron’s policies, including fuel tax increases, faced strong opposition from left-wing forces, if M?lenchon becomes prime minister, it is expected to pose obstacles to the implementation of Macron’s second-term pledges.

Intense debate is especially anticipated over pension reform. President Macron pledged to extend the retirement age from the current 62 to 65 if he succeeds in his second term. However, voters, led by labor unions, strongly opposed this, and during the two weeks of campaigning, Macron stated, "I do not want France to be divided," indicating a willingness to adjust the timing and pace of pension reform.

There is also a possibility of far-right forces uniting around Le Pen. ?ric Zemmour, the far-right candidate from Reconqu?te who ranked fourth with 7.1% of the vote in the first round, emphasized far-right unity by calling on Le Pen to form a "patriotic bloc" after the runoff results were announced. With Le Pen conceding defeat and expressing determination to win the June parliamentary elections, the far-right camp is likely to unite and speak with one voice.

Beyond the parliamentary elections, President Macron must also wage a war against inflation. Following inflation rises due to COVID-19 and the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy and food prices have surged, focusing voters’ attention on the cost of living.

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