Russia, Over 50 Days into the War, Launches 'Marathon' Strategy... Resembling the Korean War (Comprehensive)

Russian tank units advancing into the center of Mariupol. Mariupol (Ukraine) = Reuters·Yonhap News

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[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Russia announced that it has completely taken control of Mariupol, a key strategic point in the south, 53 days after the start of its invasion of Ukraine, signaling that the war is expected to become a prolonged war of attrition. As concerns grow in the U.S. and the West that the war could continue for years, experts warn that the U.S. and the West could get entangled in Russia's 'marathon' strategy. If the war continues for years, there are also worries that the ongoing energy crisis could significantly weaken the cohesion of U.S. and Western sanctions and cooperation against Russia.

According to Russia's state-run TASS news agency on the 17th (local time), the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement saying that Russian forces have occupied the entire Mariupol area, and that a small number of Ukrainian defenders are making their last stand at the Azovstal steel plant, Mariupol's largest steelworks, demanding their surrender. Mikhail Mizintsev, commander of Russia's National Defense Management Center, said, "Purely on humanitarian grounds, we propose that Ukrainian nationalist units and foreign mercenaries cease hostilities and lay down their arms," adding, "Those who lay down their arms will be spared."

With Mariupol effectively falling into Russian hands 53 days after the outbreak of war, a large-scale offensive on the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine is anticipated. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned in a report that day, "Russian forces have succeeded in encircling the entire Donbas region from three sides by taking control of northern areas near Kharkiv, eastern Donetsk and Luhansk, and southern Mariupol," and cautioned, "If Russian forces launch a large-scale offensive, Ukrainian defenders in the Donbas region will be isolated."

In particular, there are no large cities in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region that can be defended by a small number of troops up to central areas like Kyiv (Kiyev), and most of the terrain is flat plains, raising concerns that Russian forces will engage in a war of attrition using tanks and ground troops. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing U.S. Department of Defense officials, reported, "There are concerns about a large-scale offensive that would far exceed the scale of battles fought over the past 50 days," and added, "If a prolonged war of attrition with endless casualties ensues, Ukraine, which is at a disadvantage in weapons and manpower, will be in a very unfavorable position."

The Ilyich Steel Industrial Complex, known as one of the last strongholds of the Ukrainian forces' resistance in Mariupol. Mariupol (Ukraine) = Reuters·Yonhap News

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It is analyzed that the Vladimir Putin regime, which does not need to worry about domestic opposition, is highly likely to pursue a long-term war. John Alterman, deputy director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said, "The U.S. has mostly used a 'sprinter' strategy to end battles within two months in most wars, such as the 2003 Iraq War or the 1991 Gulf War, but Russia has employed the exact opposite, a marathon strategy," analyzing the situation. Since the Russian dictatorship has no fear of regime change due to public opinion deterioration, it can use a marathon strategy, and if the war drags on, not only Ukraine but also the U.S. and the West will face great difficulties. In fact, Russia fought for more than 10 years in the 1999 Chechen War and has been engaged in combat for over 8 years in the ongoing Syrian civil war.

Voices expressing concern about the prolongation of the war are growing among U.S. and Western authorities. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Union (EU) Commission, said in an interview with Germany's Bild newspaper that day, "We must prepare for the worst-case scenario that the war could last for months or even years," adding, "Ukraine must receive whatever it needs for self-defense." CNN also reported, "Some members of the U.S. Congress and their staff are drawing comparisons between the Korean War, which lasted about three years, and the current war in Ukraine."

If Russia drags the war into a long-term conflict, there are also concerns that the unity of Western countries' sanctions against Russia could collapse first. Max Hastings, former editor of the British Telegraph, wrote in a column for Bloomberg News, "European countries say they follow the lead of the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but they still oppose sanctions on Russian energy, and countries in the Middle East like Israel, as well as Latin American countries such as Mexico and Brazil, are not actively participating in sanctions against Russia," pointing out, "If the Ukraine conflict prolongs, the global energy crisis will also continue, and under such circumstances, it will be difficult to maintain integrated strength among countries with differing interests."

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