Government: "Repeated 'Small-Scale Outbreaks' More Likely Than COVID Herd Immunity"

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[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] The government has predicted that it will be difficult to reach a herd immunity system that can be expected to end COVID-19. Instead, it forecasted that the risk of a large-scale outbreak like the Omicron variant wave has decreased, and the likelihood of repeated small-scale outbreaks is high.

Son Young-rae, head of the Social Strategy Division at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, said at a briefing on the 13th, "If herd immunity means a nationwide herd immunity system considering the end of the pandemic, it is very difficult to achieve such a state." He added, "Globally and in our country as well, it is predicted that COVID-19 will transition into a system where we continue to live together rather than ending."

In an interview on the previous day with TBS Radio's 'Kim Eo-jun's News Factory,' when asked whether it could be said that significant herd immunity has been reached through vaccine immunity and natural immunity from Omicron infection, Son replied, "Yes." He explained, "Because many people have experienced a large-scale outbreak with confirmed cases, the possibility of another full-scale outbreak like this is significantly reduced."

However, he pointed out that outbreaks caused by new variants or increased virus transmission during winter are uncertain factors with potential. Son said, "It is more likely that COVID-19 will continue to persist with repeated small-scale outbreaks rather than ending."

Although the possibility of a large-scale outbreak recurring has decreased, the government is preparing for the 'post-Omicron' phase, considering the possibility of a surge in cases due to new variants or seasonal factors such as winter. After a Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters meeting on the 15th, a new social distancing adjustment plan and a post-Omicron response system including daily life recovery measures will be announced, to be applied from the 18th.

In particular, the government is reviewing a plan to lift all restrictions on private gatherings and business hours but also acknowledged that the Presidential Transition Committee’s opinion to emphasize 'speed control' is being considered.

Son explained, "We are gathering various opinions for the social distancing adjustment plan," and added, "We are discussing it while also considering several opinions from the Transition Committee."

On the day, the number of new COVID-19 cases was 195,419, which is 15,336 fewer than the previous day’s 210,755. The recent seven-day average of confirmed cases is about 182,000, which is less than half of the 405,000 recorded three weeks ago. Son said, "The weekly average daily number of confirmed cases is continuing to show a downward trend."

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