French Presidential Election Approaching... Will Macron Secure Re-election Despite Le Pen's Fierce Chase?

French President Emmanuel Macron [Photo by AP Yonhap News]

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[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] French President Emmanuel Macron is likely to secure the title of 'the first president to win re-election in 20 years' in the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for the 10th (local time) and 24th. However, the margin of victory in the runoff against Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, who is facing him again after five years, is expected to narrow to less than 10 percentage points. Even if President Macron crosses the threshold of re-election, national unity will remain an important task. Additionally, challenges such as the increased need for energy self-sufficiency due to the aftermath of the Ukraine war and the inflation problem sweeping the globe mean that Macron's second term is unlikely to be smooth sailing.

This year's French presidential election will proceed with a first round on the 10th, followed by a runoff on the 24th if no candidate secures a majority. Since President Macron's current support rate in polls is less than 30%, a runoff appears inevitable.

According to the Ipsos polling agency on the 4th, as of the 2nd, President Macron's approval rating stands at 26%. His support rate has dropped 4.5 percentage points from 30.5% on the 2nd of last month, when it surged due to Russia's airstrikes on Ukraine. In contrast, Le Pen's support rose by 6.5 percentage points from 14.5% to 21% during the same period. While President Macron is leading, Le Pen is accelerating her pursuit. Candidates such as Jean-Luc M?lenchon of La France Insoumise (LFI), known for his far-left stance; ?ric Zemmour of Reconqu?te (REC), dubbed the 'French Trump'; and Yannick Jadot of the Green Party (EELV) are also in the chase.

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Based on current support rates, if President Macron and Le Pen face off in the runoff, the result is likely to be very close. In the 2017 runoff, Macron secured 66.1% of the vote, far ahead of Le Pen's 33.9%. However, this time, the gap is expected to narrow to just 6 percentage points, with Macron at 53% and Le Pen at 47%. If far-right candidates were to unite, Le Pen could potentially surpass Macron, but competition within the far-right camp makes such unification unlikely.

Another variable is the low voter turnout. Recent polls show that less than 70% of respondents intend to vote, suggesting a record low turnout. In the 2002 presidential election, when Jacques Chirac was re-elected, a historically low turnout allowed Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine Le Pen's father, who had been overlooked, to advance to the runoff in a surprising upset. This raises uncertainty about what low turnout might bring this time.

With less than a week remaining until the election, the campaign is intensifying. Challenger Le Pen, drawing on her 2017 experience, is expanding support by visiting working-class communities instead of holding large rallies. Although she symbolizes the far-right, Le Pen is running a pragmatic campaign rather than emphasizing ideology. Foreign media analyze that she is emphasizing a softer image with messages of empathy, openness, and flexibility.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

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For example, while maintaining her anti-immigration stance, she has shown a welcoming attitude toward refugees in the Ukraine crisis, according to Professor C?cile Alduy of Stanford University. This is interpreted as an attempt to consolidate her core supporters while attracting centrist voters.

In contrast, ?ric Zemmour, who competes with Le Pen, continues to emphasize far-right ideology. He stresses anti-immigration policies, such as insisting that Ukrainian refugees should settle in Poland rather than France.

President Macron, who has played a mediator role amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, entered the campaign late and has adopted a defensive stance to maintain his lead. Having officially declared his re-election bid earlier this month, he appeared at his first large-scale campaign rally on the 2nd, stating, "The risk of extremism today is much greater than it was months or years ago," and added, "Look at what happened in other elections like Brexit. The improbable became reality. Nothing is impossible." This is interpreted as an effort to rally anti-far-right forces by acknowledging the possibility of defeat.

If President Macron succeeds in his expected re-election, his primary focus is likely to be the domestic economy. The aftermath of Russia's airstrikes on Ukraine has led to soaring energy prices and inflation across Europe, necessitating solutions to labor reforms and immigration issues. Over the past five years, Macron has received a favorable economic report card. Last year, France's GDP growth rate reached 7%, the highest in 52 years, and unemployment fell to 8%, the lowest in over a decade. He has also attracted investment by focusing on reviving manufacturing. However, criticisms remain regarding job security, job quality, and deepening polarization.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

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President Macron has prioritized strengthening national defense and energy self-sufficiency as key pledges. Amid soaring energy prices due to Russian threats, he has pledged investments in nuclear and renewable energy, stating, "France will be the first great nation to break free from fossil fuels." Additionally, he aims for full employment within five years and plans labor market reforms, including raising the retirement age from 62 to 65.

Moreover, Macron must secure victory in the parliamentary elections scheduled for June 12th and 19th. Currently, his centrist party La R?publique En Marche (LREM) holds the majority in the National Assembly, but a significant defeat in these elections would hinder policy implementation. LREM performed poorly in last year's local elections, failing to win any of the 12 constituencies that proceeded to runoff voting.

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