President Moon's Approval Drops for 3 Consecutive Weeks Amid COVID-19 and North Korea Issues... Maintains 40% Range [Realmeter]

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] President Moon Jae-in's approval rating has fallen for three consecutive weeks, dropping to the low 40% range. It is evaluated that the COVID-19 infection situation and North Korea-related issues influenced this decline.

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On the 9th, Realmeter conducted a survey commissioned by YTN from the 2nd to the 6th, targeting 2,530 voters aged 18 and over nationwide (response rate 5.4%) to measure President Moon's approval rating. The result showed that the positive evaluation of "doing well in state affairs" was 41.5%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous survey in the 4th week of July. The negative evaluation of "doing poorly in state affairs" rose by 2.5 percentage points to 54.9%, and "don't know/no response" increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.6%.

Although President Moon's positive rating still remained in the 40% range, it declined for three consecutive weeks, widening the gap between positive and negative evaluations to 13.4 percentage points, reaching double digits for the first time in four weeks.

By region, Incheon and Gyeonggi (40.7%) saw the largest drop, falling 7.0 percentage points from the previous survey, followed by Gwangju and Jeolla (66.8%) down 6.1 percentage points, and Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (34.6%) down 2.9 percentage points.

By age group, the 20s showed the largest decline, dropping 12.4 percentage points from 42.8% to 30.4%. The 30s fell 2.9 percentage points to 45.9%, and those aged 70 and above decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 32.0%.

A Realmeter official analyzed, "The continued spread of COVID-19 and early-week remarks by Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the North Korean Workers' Party, pressuring the suspension of South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises influenced the results."

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Regarding party support, the People Power Party rose 2.6 percentage points from last week to 37.8%, while the Democratic Party of Korea fell 1.5 percentage points to 32.1%.

The People Power Party's rise for two consecutive weeks was driven by the entry of two leading figures within the party, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl and former Director Choi Jae-hyung's declaration to run, boosting support among conservatives (56.8% → 64.4%) and moderates (40.3% → 42.7%). Conversely, the Democratic Party declined for three consecutive weeks due to intensified negative campaigning between Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung and former party leader Lee Nak-yon, widening the gap between the two major parties beyond the margin of error for the first time in four weeks.

Other parties recorded the following support levels: Open Democratic Party 6.8%, People’s Party 6.3%, Justice Party 3.2%, Transition Korea 0.8%, Basic Income Party 0.6%. The proportion of undecided voters decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 10.7% compared to last week.

The margin of error for this survey is ±1.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Detailed survey methodology and results can be found on the Realmeter website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

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