The Economist: "President Trump Has a 15% Chance of Reelection"

by Lee Hyunwoo

Published 12 Jun.2020 14:19(KST)

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The British current affairs weekly The Economist reported that the probability of President Donald Trump winning re-election in the next U.S. presidential election is predicted to be 15%. It analyzed that the economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and most other factors are very unfavorable.

On the 11th (local time), The Economist announced that according to its own model created in collaboration with Andrew Gelman, director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University, the probability of President Trump's re-election is 15%, while the probability of former Vice President Joe Biden winning is predicted to be 85%. The Economist explained that it reflected basic factors such as voter support and the national economic situation, which influence voters' choices, as well as polling results in its analysis.

According to The Economist, when considering the basic factors, President Trump maintained high support and the economy was not bad, so until recently, his chances of re-election were considered high. However, due to the economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the basic factors have become very unfavorable for President Trump. Conversely, the polling results have become favorable for candidate Biden.

However, The Economist explained that early polls in the election campaign tend to predict the actual election results less accurately than the basic factors, so currently, greater weight has been given to the basic factors. The Economist added that it assigned different weights to various polling results released so far, considering sample sizes, and adjusted for biases due to survey methods.

Considering all variables, the probability that President Trump can surpass Biden in the total number of voter votes was analyzed to be about 5%, while the likelihood of winning the Electoral College vote was higher at around 15%. The U.S. presidential election is conducted through an indirect vote where electors allocated to each state are distributed to candidates, and since most states implement a 'winner-takes-all' system that awards all electors to the candidate who receives even one vote from voters, the total voter vote results and the actual election results can differ.