'Blind Statistics' North Korea... Estimated Per Capita GDP of 790 Dollars Using Nighttime Lighting

Average annual nighttime light intensity in North Korea. Strong lighting is observed only in some parts of western Pyongyang. This contrasts with the strong lighting south of the Korean Peninsula's Military Demarcation Line.

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A study analyzing nighttime lighting across North Korea has estimated the country's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to be $790 (approximately 1.01 million KRW), drawing attention.

According to Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 20th, the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) in Austria recently published a report in the academic journal 'Nature Research' stating that this figure was derived from analyzing North Korea's nighttime commercial satellite images from 2012 to 2018.

Economists have studied the correlation between nighttime lighting and economic activity to estimate economic indicators in developing countries with limited data. North Korea is one of the representative countries where it is difficult to calculate economic indicators due to a lack of objective statistical data and restricted access to information.

Professor Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, who authored the report, explained, "Due to the lack of statistics on the GDP of North Korea, one of the most closed countries, we undertook this study," adding, "The more lights exposed at night, the more active the economic activity."

On the 18th, the Korean Central News Agency reported that the Choson Rodongdang Publishing House and Mansudae Art Studio created new advanced works to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party.

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The per capita GDP was calculated by integrating nighttime light intensity with existing indicators such as regional age structure and employment rates by industrial sector.

From 2012 to 2015, the intensity of nighttime lighting decreased in most regions except Pyongyang.

From 2016 to 2018, however, the lighting intensity in the Hamgyong, Yanggang, and Pyongan provinces significantly increased.

Additionally, the research team estimated that the poverty population, earning less than or equal to $1.90 per day, accounts for 60% of the total population.

However, these research results differ somewhat from previously published estimates.

Previous studies estimated North Korea's poverty rate at 40%. The Bank of Korea estimated North Korea's per capita GDP at $2,500, more than three times higher than this study's result.

Meanwhile, Professor William Brown of Georgetown University told RFA in an interview on the 19th that the increase in nighttime lighting in some parts of North Korea since 2016 could be partly due to the rise in solar panels. He explained that North Korea, suffering from chronic power shortages, has recently been increasing its use of solar energy.

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