2026 Real Estate Market Outlook

Thirty-six experts identified Gangnam District in Seoul (13 respondents) as the area expected to see the highest increase in housing prices this year. They cited reasons such as "inelastic supply" and an "irreplaceable location." This year, the supply of new housing in Gangnam District is noticeably lower than in previous years, and large-scale redevelopment projects in areas like Apgujeong and Gaepo-dong are entering full swing, which is expected to drive an overall rise in prices. Together with Gangnam District, Songpa District (8 respondents) and Seocho District (7 respondents), which are collectively known as the "Gangnam 3 Districts," are also expected to experience rising housing prices. Songpa District is characterized by a high proportion of apartment complexes and a concentration of large-scale developments, making it highly sensitive to market fluctuations. Experts analyzed that the full-scale redevelopment of symbolic, aging complexes such as the Olympic Athletes' Village a

This year, the increase in jeonse prices is expected to surpass last year's level, marking the beginning of a vicious cycle that could further stimulate housing prices. Experts predict that, with the nationwide sharp decline in housing listings and a decrease in new housing supply, the resulting 'supply shock' will further destabilize the rental market.Concerns Over the Nationwide Spread of the 'Vicious Cycle' of Jeonse Prices Pushing Up Home Sale PricesIn this survey, all respondents predicted a "rise in jeonse prices," reflecting growing concerns over a supply shock. Of the respondents, 72.2% (26 people) said, "The increase in jeonse prices will be greater than last year." The remaining 27.8% (10 people) also chose "an increase (but with a smaller rise than last year)." Not a single expert predicted a decline or stabilization in the jeonse market. In particular, they expected that, in Seoul, jeonse prices would rise even more steeply than home sale prices, leading to a sharp increase

Experts predict that this year will see an unprecedented supply cliff, leading to a 'jeonse crisis.' The cumulative decline in housing permits and construction starts over the past several years is expected to peak this year, further exacerbating housing insecurity for ordinary citizens. As available homes disappear, more people are likely to decide they would rather buy a home, which is expected to drive up sales prices as well.According to a survey conducted by The Asia Business Daily on January 12 with 36 experts from academia, research institutes, construction companies, and the financial sector, the experts agreed that the supply cliff will be the definitive keyword determining the direction of the 2026 real estate market. They diagnosed that, more than interest rates or regulations, the immediate lack of available homes is the decisive factor shaping the fate of the market. The most precarious area is the jeonse market. All respondents (100%) predicted a nationwide rise in jeonse