De-globalization? New Order!

"We need to reduce our dependence on the United States and China and diversify our exports to Asia, North America, Europe, and other regions. Canada is also striving to diversify its export markets for goods and energy to various countries, including Asia and Europe." Hyun Jungsik, a professor at the University of Alberta in Canada and an international trade expert, stated this in a recent written interview with Asia Economy regarding how to respond to U.S. tariff impositions and the ongoing U.S.-China conflict. Professor Hyun predicted, "It is unlikely that Canada will impose high tariffs on countries without free trade agreements, as Mexico has done." ―What is the atmosphere like in Canada regarding the U.S. tariffs? Unlike the European Union, Korea, and Japan, Canada has not yet reached an agreement. ▲Canada has already withdrawn a significant portion of its retaliatory tariffs against the United States. At the same time, the country is implementing various policies aimed at fundame

"For at least the next 7 to 10 years, we must prepare for a period in which there is no global trade order. During this time, it is essential to uphold commitments to WTO rules while simultaneously forming the largest possible coalition of countries willing to establish a new framework. Rather than relying on either the United States or China, Korea should strengthen alliances with trustworthy trading partners. Stability should be secured through broader multilateral coalitions. Cooperation with the European Union could be the cornerstone of such efforts." Ignacio Garcia Berceo, Senior Researcher at the Bruegel Institute, made these remarks in an interview with Asia Economy on the topic of "Changes in the Global Trade Order and the Path Korea Should Take." Berceo is a veteran official who spent over 30 years handling trade policy at the European Commission. Since 1987, he has participated in the Uruguay Round negotiations and worked at the New York United Nations Mission. Notably, in 2

As the United States adopts a tariff policy based on reciprocity, the global trade order has entered a period of turmoil. For South Korea, which is highly dependent on exports, it is urgent to devise countermeasures. Experts believe that it is necessary to maintain close alliance relations with the United States while also continuing economic cooperation with China, such as in new industrial sector division of labor. They also suggest that South Korea should make its voice heard by establishing a multilateral order and cooperative framework. Alongside diversifying export markets, upgrading domestic industries to high value-added sectors was also identified as a key task. Responding to the U.S.-China Bipolar System...Need to Diversify Exports to Emerging Markets Experts recently interviewed by Asia Economy unanimously advised that efforts should be made to build cooperative relations not only with the United States but also with China. Their argument is that, as the United States and C

As the United States pursues a unilateral tariff policy that is shaking the foundations of the international trade order, the world is closely watching where the global trade system is headed. However, there is still no replacement trade regime in place, nor are there meaningful discussions underway to establish one. Some experts predict that for the next 7 to 10 years, the world will experience a chaotic trade environment, marked by the absence of global trade norms, with countries joining forces for survival while simultaneously keeping each other in check. Although cooperation and conflict have always coexisted in the past, the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules at least served as a safety net. The current situation, where trade norms have been effectively neutralized, is unprecedented. Asia Economy interviewed international trade experts to assess the current state of the global trade order and its future direction. Interviews were conducted with Alan Wolff, Senior Fellow at the

There is growing attention on the potential side effects of the high-tariff policy pursued by the Donald Trump administration in the United States. While inflation and employment indicators have not yet been significantly affected, some predict that if there are changes substantial enough for the American public to feel directly, the momentum behind the tariff policy could be halted. In particular, Siwook Lee, President of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), expects that inflation could become the key factor steering this direction. In an interview with Asia Economy on September 10 at his office at the KIEP headquarters in Sejong National Research Complex, President Lee stated, "Inflation is a much heavier burden for low-income groups, which is why tariffs are often called regressive taxes." He forecasted that while Trump's policy direction currently enjoys strong support in the United States, attention should be paid to variables that could emerge in the futu

The United States is once again calling for a "manufacturing revival." The second Trump administration has used tariffs as a weapon to reshape the global trade order while shifting the focus of industrial policy toward manufacturing. The administration is also strengthening cooperation with key allies in sectors such as semiconductors, batteries, automobiles, shipbuilding, and nuclear power. The goal is to contain China and restore domestic jobs, but there are still questions about whether this strategy can truly succeed. The Combination of Tariffs and Manufacturing RevivalThe second Trump administration introduced a reciprocity model that imposes a basic tariff on all trading partners and adds extra tariffs to countries with large trade deficits. This is not merely a protectionist measure that makes imports more expensive, but is being used as a political and economic tool to revive manufacturing. Tariff revenues are funneled into fiscal resources, which are then used for tax cuts or

"Tariffs have become the defining feature of Trump's second-term economic agenda." As the Washington Post pointed out, the key word that defines the second-term economy of Donald Trump is undoubtedly "tariffs." Upon taking office on January 20 of this year, President Trump championed "America First," and his first move under the banner of reviving manufacturing and restoring jobs was to implement tariffs. The fact that the United States, long a supporter of free trade, erected high tariff barriers within just a few months is a testament to the challenging economic conditions. The Trump administration identified chronic issues in the U.S. economy, such as concerns over economic slowdown, widening fiscal deficits, and deindustrialization, and proposed tariffs as the solution. The real question is whether tariffs will prove to be a remedy that transforms the structure of the U.S. economy or whether they will backfire. At this point, it is difficult to make a clear judgment. President Trum

The United States has shaken the foundation of globalization-based free trade and the multilateral order by prioritizing tariffs and introducing a new principle called "reciprocity." In this context, some advise that rather than being swept up by the American perspective, we should examine the potential spread of reciprocity. The view is that if major countries such as the European Union (EU) and Japan do not follow the United States in adopting reciprocity, it should be seen not as the end of the era of globalization, but as an "American departure." Jiman Su, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute of Finance, recently told Asia Economy, "Declaring that we have entered a post-globalization, post-free trade era could end up closing off our own options for responding to the United States, so it is important to make a distinction." He added, "Free trade has not ended; it is just that the United States has left. We need to see whether this departure will be temporary or prolonged."

As the Donald Trump administration in the United States presents tariff bills to various countries, different approaches are emerging depending on the nation. South Korea, Japan, and the European Union (EU) have accepted similar demands, but each continues to grapple with the United States over the details of implementation. There are expectations that, given the close economic ties, it will be difficult for the United States to impose high tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Experts also predict that in the case of China, rather than a direct confrontation through high tariffs, the outcome will likely be a political declaration in which both sides claim "victory" despite little substantive progress in negotiations. Similar Negotiation Proposals, but Different Approaches for the EU, Japan, and South KoreaThe United States recently completed initial tariff negotiations with the EU and Japan, followed by additional detailed agreements. However, South Korea is facing difficulties in these addi

The first administration of Donald Trump in the United States shook the multilateral order by implementing a tariff shock therapy directly targeting China. The second administration is taking things a step further. By establishing a detailed grid based on country, product, and production process, it fully embraces the principle of "reciprocity," effectively designing a bloc-based trade order. The discourse on "securitization of economic issues and weaponization of interdependence," which spread during the Joe Biden administration, has helped share this sense of concern globally, providing a foundation for the Trump administration's second-term tariff regime to become not just a one-off pressure tactic but a "new norm." During Trump’s first term, there were clashes with allies over certain items such as steel and aluminum, but the main target was China. In his second term, however, the policy spectrum has broadened to include trade deficits, mutual trade practices between countries, and